Weekly global protein digest: dairy retail report

Analyst Jim Wyckoff shares his weekly outlook on dairy and beef.
calendar icon 5 November 2021
clock icon 4 minute read

USDA’s weekly milk report


BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $1.9400. The weekly average for Grade AA is $1.9230 (+0.1125).
CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.8200 and 40# blocks at $1.6750. The weekly average for barrels is $1.8370 (+0.0130) and blocks, $1.7495 (-0.0145).

NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.5575. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.5440 (+0.0130).

DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.6300. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.6230 (+0.0170).

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Although labor issues persist, cheesemakers across the country relay busy production schedules as many plants operate at, or close to, capacity. Spot milk prices are reported to range from flat Class to $1.00 over Class III this week in the Midwest. Export interest is steady. Demand is stable to stronger across food service and retail sectors, although logistics and supply
chain issues are still evidenced by delayed deliveries and/or partial fulfilment of orders. Block inventories are abundant, but barrels are less available. Block and barrel prices are still inverted. Cheese market tones are unsteady.

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Cream is tighter in the East and Central regions. Stakeholders worked to reallocate loads of Western cream following an incident that left a large manufacturer offline and
unable to receive deliveries. Some butter makers, limited by higher cream multiples and staffing shortages, are running lighter production schedules. Plant managers are prioritizing print production to meet surging holiday demand, which has contributed to lower fresh bulk availability and higher bulk prices. Older inventories, however, are still available to meet near term needs, though contacts say that unsalted stocks are tighter than salted. Food service sales and retail orders continue to be steady. Butter market tones are bullish. Bulk butter overages range from 2 to 13 cents above market this week.

FLUID MILK: The East on the farm milk production is increasing, and some areas received milk loads from other parts of the region to supplement their current needs. Bottling is steady to increasing. In the Midwest, milk output continues to rise with improving milk per cow numbers. Spot milk prices are higher this week. California milk production is flat to higher. Class I sales are stable. Arizona milk output is level to higher. Bottling sales declined. In New Mexico, milk production is increasing, but Class I demand has dipped. The Pacific Northwest is seeing less than projected milk output. Class I sales are steady. Milk production is increasing in the mountainous states of Idaho, Colorado, and Utah. Bottling orders are lower. Cream availability is mixed depending on time and location needed. Across the country, the f.o.b. cream multiple ranges 1.35-1.48 in the East, 1.33 -1.43 in the Midwest, and 1.18-1.38 in the West cream multiple ranges 1.35-1.48 in the East, 1.33-1.43 in the Midwest, and 1.18-1.38 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS: The low/medium heat nonfat dry milk market is steady to higher in the mostly series across regions. The market has not been too hesitant to pay higher prices for availability. Mexico is showing steady interest. Dry buttermilk prices are steady to higher in the East, Central, and West regions. Interest is mixed. Limited churning factors into tight inventories. Dry whole milk prices are lower this week. Production is light. Dry whey prices are higher in the East and West, but steady to higher in the Central region. Demand is stable as export sales improve. The whey protein concentrate 34 percent prices are unchanged to higher. Production is mixed as inventories tighten. Demand is good. Lactose prices are steady to lower. Spot interest is lackluster. Inventories are growing. Prices of acid and rennet casein are steady this week.

USDA’s weekly dairy retail report

Advertised Prices for Dairy Products at Major Retail Supermarket Outlets ending during the period of 10/29/2021 to 11/04/2021 Total conventional dairy ads decreased 2 percent from last week. Organic dairy ads decreased 47 percent. Ads for conventional ice cream in 48-to-64-ounce containers, the most advertised conventional item this week, are up 31 percent from last week. The national weighted average advertised price for conventional ice cream in 48-to-64-ounce containers is $3.13, up $0.11 from last week.

The national weighted average advertised price for butter in a 1-pound package is $3.36, up 15 cents from last week. There are no ads for organic butter. This week, conventional yogurt ad numbers are down 39 percent while organic yogurt ads dropped 41 percent. Conventional Greek yogurt in 4 to 6-ounce containers, the most advertised conventional yogurt item, has a weighted average advertised price of $0.99, down $0.03 from last week. There are no ads for 4-6-ounce organic yogurt.

Conventional cheese advertisements increased 8 percent from last week. The most advertised cheese item this week is conventional 8-ounce shred cheese, featured in 17 percent fewer ads than last week. The weighted average advertised price for conventional 8-ounce shred cheese is $2.47, up 8 cents from last week. There are no ads for organic cheese this week.

The national weighted average advertised price for conventional milk half gallons is $2.59, compared to $4.13 for organic milk half gallons, resulting in an organic price premium of $1.54. Organic half gallon milk is the most advertised organic item.

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