27 June 2025

13 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

South America

North America

Cattle industry trade conjecture: Mexico border may open up for cattle crossings sometime between now and July 11

Not all ports but maybe a couple. (t would make sense to stairstep on entries of cattle. Like USDA did when they reopened after the initial ban.)

The most recent official USDA update was released on May 27, reaffirming that the current restrictions remain in place and that USDA will continue to evaluate the suspension every 30 days. The import suspension itself began as of May 11, 2025.

Calculation of the 30-Day timeline:

• If the last review or announcement was on May 27, the next 30-day review would be due on June 26.
• If the 30-day period is counted from the original suspension date of May 11, the first review would have been around June 10, and subsequent reviews would continue every 30 days from that point.

More countries lift HPAI-related trade restrictions on Brazilian poultry

Japan among 17 nations restoring access after bird flu outbreak resolution

Seventeen countries — including Japan, a top importer — have lifted avian influenza-related import bans on Brazilian poultry after Brazil declared itself free of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) as of June 18. This status followed 28 days without new cases since an outbreak in Rio Grande do Sul prompted global trade restrictions in May.

Countries restoring access include Algeria, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Egypt, El Salvador, Iraq, Japan, Lesotho, Libya, Morocco, Myanmar, Montenegro, Paraguay, Dominican Republic, Sri Lanka, Vanuatu, and Vietnam. The World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) officially updated Brazil’s disease-free status after confirming the closure of the only commercial case in Montenegro municipality.

While progress is clear, 14 countries and the European Union still uphold a full ban on Brazilian poultry, and 18 others — including the UK — maintain region-specific restrictions. Several Middle Eastern nations have limited their bans to just the affected municipality.

Japan, the third-largest importer of Brazilian chicken meat in 2024, had imposed a partial ban affecting imports from Montenegro and live poultry from Rio Grande do Sul. In 2024, Brazil supplied about 443,000 tons of chicken to Japan — nearly 70% of Japan’s total poultry imports. Although Japan’s purchases from Brazil fell by over 18% in early 2025, Brazil still commanded a 67% market share, with Thailand as its main competitor. The lifting of restrictions is expected to stabilize Japan’s poultry supply and ease local price pressures.

Outlook for Brazilian poultry exports

Brazil remains the world’s leading poultry exporter, shipping a record 5.294 million tons in 2024. The rapid containment of HPAI and the swift restoration of market access underscore Brazil’s robust sanitary controls and are expected to support ongoing export growth. The Ministry of Agriculture continues to work with global partners to fully reopen all markets and reassure buyers that Brazilian poultry products are safe when properly cooked. Ricardo Santin, president of the Brazilian Animal Protein Association, stated, “We are confident in a swift return to normal shipping volumes and in strengthening our role in ensuring global food security.” With major buyers like Japan now resuming imports, Brazil is set to regain momentum in poultry exports and reinforce its position in the global food supply chain.

US trade deals on hold pending GOP tax-and-spending bill

The Trump administration is delaying the announcement of new trade deals until Congress passes the Republicans’ massive tax and spending bill, according to National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. The so-called “megabill,” currently the subject of heated negotiations, includes major tax cuts and spending provisions and is expected to be finalized around the July 4th congressional recess. Hassett said the administration is “very close” to finalizing trade arrangements with several countries but is deliberately holding off until the tax bill is enacted. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed the strategy, arguing that a stable domestic tax environment will strengthen the U.S. position in global trade negotiations and provide greater certainty to American businesses. Passage of the bill is seen as a prerequisite for unlocking trade agreements with nations including India, Japan, and Vietnam, and for addressing issues such as digital taxes on U.S. businesses abroad. Once the bill passes, officials say a wave of trade deal announcements is expected, potentially reshaping the U.S. economic landscape and its global alliances.

US beef demand stays strong

Despite the second highest wholesale beef prices behind the Covid-induced spike in 2020, packers continue to move a lot of product. Last week’s total volume reached 7,354 loads, with formula sales marking a new high for the year. This was likely the final push by retailers for last-minute needs ahead of the Fourth of July and fill-in supplies for after the holiday, which typically starts a slower period for beef demand.

Historic cash cattle run ends

After nine straight weeks of gains in the cash cattle market, including eight consecutive record highs, prices declined last week. The average cash cattle price of $234.88 fell $4.03 from the previous week and cash sources are expecting additional near-term weakness as packers continue to run historically light slaughters amid negative margins. While margins have greatly improved, they remain solidly in the red.

Nebraska meatpacking plant bets on Americans as immigration crackdown tightens

New facility offers higher wages, daytime shifts, and better conditions to attract local workers amid labor shortages

A new $400 million meatpacking plant in North Platte, Nebraska, “ is offering $22-an-hour starting pay, health insurance, ergonomic workstations, and a single daytime shift in hopes of attracting American workers as immigration restrictions reduce the traditional labor pool, the Wall Street Journal reports).

Sustainable Beef’s opening is a big bet for a town hit by years of job losses and declining population. “We needed to do something to stay relevant,” city council member Pete Volz told the Wall Street Journal. Over half of U.S. front-line meatpacking workers are immigrants, but President Trump’s recent immigration crackdown — including ending programs for migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela — is squeezing the workforce industrywide.

Some residents are wary of demographic change and increased crime, but the plant’s modern approach aims to draw locals into jobs once dominated by immigrants. “This isn’t the same old meatpacking plant!” ads proclaim.

Still, most dangerous production jobs are filled by Hispanic immigrants, many with prior experience. “Their response was, that’s beneath them. That’s a dirty job for immigrants,” said local forklift driver Keenan Taylor, describing neighbors’ reluctance.

Sustainable Beef faces high cattle prices and tough competition from industry giants like Tyson and JBS, but its founders hope improved work conditions and local hiring will be a model for the future. As co-founder Trey Wasserburger said, “What we’re doing has never been done before.”

Neutral USDA Cattle on Feed Report

USDA last Friday estimated there were 11.442 million head of cattle in large feedlots (1,000-plus head) as of June 1, down 141,000 head (1.2%) from year-ago. May placements declined 7.8% and marketings fell 10.1% from year-ago levels, with both categories slightly lower than the average pre-report estimates. The data is neutral compared to the pre-report expectations, but continues to paint an overall bullish supply picture.

USDA launches July Cattle survey to update national herd counts

Key industry report returns after brief hiatus

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has mailed the July cattle survey to approximately 18,000 cattle operations across the country, aiming to provide an up-to-date measure of U.S. cattle inventories. This marks the first July cattle survey since key industry reports were reinstated earlier this year. “This information helps producers make timely, informed business decisions and plan for herd expansion or reduction,” said NASS Livestock Branch Chief Travis Averill. “It also helps packers and government leaders evaluate expected slaughter volume for future months and determine potential supplies for export. Obtaining the current count of cattle will serve as an important decision-making tool for the entire agriculture industry.”

During the first two weeks of July, cattle producers will be able to report their beef and dairy cattle inventories, calf crop, death loss, and cattle on feed data. NASS is providing several response options — including online, phone, mail, or in-person interviews — to ensure broad participation.

Canada passes landmark law shielding dairy, egg, and poultry sectors from future trade concessions

Bill C-202 awaits Royal assent, reshaping Canada’s trade stance ahead of USMCA Talks

Canada has taken a major step to lock in protection for its supply-managed dairy, egg, and poultry sectors, as Bill C-202 passed both chambers of Parliament and now awaits Royal Assent to become law.

Key provisions and political context. Bill C-202 amends Canada’s foreign affairs act, making it illegal for government ministers to reduce tariffs or increase import quotas on dairy, eggs, and poultry in future trade negotiations. This means:

• Ministers cannot increase tariff rate quotas (TRQs) for these products.
• Ministers cannot lower tariffs on imports above TRQ levels.

The bill, introduced by the Bloc Québécois and passed with unanimous support in the House of Commons, quickly advanced through the Senate. Its timing is notable, arriving just before anticipated talks with the U.S. and Mexico on renewing the USMCA trade agreement.

Industry and trade implications. The legislation has been widely praised by Canadian dairy, egg, and poultry producers — especially in Quebec, the country’s dairy powerhouse. Bill C-202 provides these farmers with robust legal certainty, protecting the quota values that underpin their business models.

However, trade experts and representatives from export-reliant sectors, like beef and grain, have raised concerns. They warn that the law may complicate Canada’s ability to negotiate concessions in other areas, as it legally prohibits market access offers on key supply-managed goods. This could heighten trade tensions, particularly with American officials who have long pushed for greater access to Canada’s protected markets.

Broader consequences and outlook. The passage of Bill C-202 is seen as a bold, even provocative move, signaling that Canada is drawing a firm red line on dairy, egg, and poultry concessions. Some fear it could trigger retaliation or make other sectors more vulnerable in future negotiations. Nevertheless, the legislation cements supply management as a non-negotiable pillar of Canadian agricultural policy, potentially reshaping the country’s approach to future trade talks.

Upshot: With Royal Assent considered a formality, Bill C-202 is set to become law, ushering in a new era for Canadian trade policy and farm sector stability.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (6/20) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.5000. The weekly average for Grade AA is $2.5494 (+0.0094). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.6575 and 40# blocks at $1.6650. The weekly average for barrels is $1.7269 (-0.1251) and blocks $1.7225 ( 0.1370). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.2600. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.2688 (+0.0033). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.5700. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.5544 (-0.0096).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: In the East region, domestic butter demand varies from steady to strong. In the Central region, domestic butter demand varies from steady to lighter. Domestic butter demand is steady for the West. Demand from international buyers for US butter is strong. Cream availability varies from steady to tighter. Butter production schedules are mixed. In a few cases spot cream availability is limiting stronger butter production. Some plant managers are increasing 82 percent butterfat production and decreasing 80 percent butterfat production. Bulk butter overages range from 7 cents below to 6 cents above market across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: The CME prices experienced a steady decline this week. Barrel and 40-pound blocks dropped in price every day of trading. The CME weekly average for barrels was $1.7269, down $0.1251 from the previous week. The CME average for 40-pound blocks was $1.7225, down $0.1370 from the previous week. Milk production is down nationwide. Contract loads of milk are sufficient for cheese production, contributing to ample supply available for spot purchases. Spot loads of Class III milk were trading from $8-under to flat. Cheese production is steady to lighter, with some facilities experiencing unplanned downtime. Retail demand for cheese is increasing in some regions but strong overall. Food service demand is steady. Cheese exports continue to increase. Inventory is holding steady, with no major change in the weekly cold storage report.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: The summer heat is beginning to affect milk production nationally. Some areas are not experiencing a noticeable drop in production, while other regions note a decrease. Milk components are also dropping as the temperatures rise. Class I milk production is seasonally low with facilities diverting milk from bottling to other manufacturing processes. Class II production is strong. Ice cream and frozen dairy mix manufacturing is helping offset the decrease in bottling. Cream spot loads are getting purchased for ice cream production. Class III manufacturing is steady to light this week. Some facilities experienced unplanned downtime this week and were selling spot loads of Class III milk at lower prices compared to previous weeks. Spot loads of Class III milk were trading from $8-under to flat. Cream was readily available, and demand remained steady to strong. Butter churns were operating at or near capacity, while ice cream was also pulling on available cream. Spot loads of cream are available. Cream multiples generally increased nationwide, but are below last year’s week 25 range. Condensed skim is heavy and demand is steady to strong. Condensed skim is selling below Class price.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices were generally steady to higher this week across all regions, with only the top of the mostly price series in the West moving lower. Contacts report spot inventories are somewhat tight throughout the country. High heat NDM prices increased in the Central and East regions. In the West, the bottom of the high heat NDM price range moved lower, but the top was unchanged. The price ranges for dry buttermilk shifted higher in all regions. The top of the mostly price series pushed upwards in the West, but the bottom held steady. Dry whole milk prices moved up at the bottom and down at the top. In the East, dry whey traded in a tighter range this week. Central region whey prices increased at the bottom, but the bottom of the mostly price series moved lower. The bottom of the West region dry whey price range moved higher, while the mostly price series widened. Prices for whey protein concentrate 34% increased at the bottom of the range and the top of the mostly price series. Contacts report WPC 34% remains light and inventories are tight. Lactose prices decreased at the top of the range and bottom of the mostly price series. Acid and rennet casein prices were unchanged.

INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS: 

WEST EUROPE: The UK-based Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) released a review of dairy markets for May 2025, which showed milk deliveries were up 5.2 percent in May, compared to a year earlier. Among some of the top Western EU milk producers, the year-to date milk deliveries and percentage changes from January-April 2024 are Germany, 10,650,000 MT, -2.9 percent; France, 8,108,000 MT, -1.9 percent; and Italy, 4,641,000 MT, unchanged.

EAST EUROPE: According to CLAL data made available to USDA the year-to-date milk deliveries and percentage changes from January-April 2024 for some of the top Eastern EU milk producers are Poland, 4,611,000 MT, +0.7 percent; Czech Republic, 1,123,000 MT, -2.0 percent; and Hungary, 616,000 MT, +3.6 percent.

OCEANIA: AUSTRALIA: The May 2025 Production Inputs Monitor from Dairy Australia was recently released. Poor weather conditions in Australia persist, with dry conditions in the southern portions of the continent and extreme rainfall causing flooding in parts of New South Wales. Per The United States Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service Australian milk production in 2025 is expected to decline by just under one percent year over year.

NEW ZEALAND: A New Zealand dairy cooperative recently announced their forecasted organic milk pay price for the start of the 2025/2026 season, a new high with a midpoint of $12.30 per kilogram milk solids (kgMS), up 30 cents from the previous season. Recently released data from a New Zealand organic group showed the organic sector grew to 1.18 billion NZD in 2024.

SOUTH AMERICA: South America milk production is mixed as seasonal changes are taking place. Stakeholders indicate 2025 milk output totals through May are up compared to the same time a year earlier. Rainfall amounts continue to be sufficient for pasture needs.