26 September 2025

15 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

South America

North America

Asia

Weekly USDA US beef, pork export sales

Beef: Net US sales of 8,400 MT for 2025 were down 47 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan (2,000 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Mexico (1,800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (1,300 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Taiwan (1,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Canada (900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Net sales of 100 MT for 2026 were for Taiwan. Exports of 12,500 MT were down 5 percent from the previous week, but up 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (3,400 MT), South Korea (2,900 MT), Mexico (1,500 MT), Taiwan (1,100 MT), and Canada (1,000 MT).

Pork: Net US sales of 29,400 MT for 2025 were up 34 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (10,000 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), South Korea (4,900 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan (3,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), the Dominican Republic (2,600 MT), and Colombia (2,000 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), were offset by reductions for Panama (100 MT). Total net sales of 200 MT for 2026 were for South Korea. Exports of 29,300 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (13,100 MT), Japan (3,600 MT), China (2,800 MT), South Korea (2,400 MT), and Colombia (1,900 MT).

California’s Prop 12 challenged by Triumph Foods

Triumph Foods has filed a new lawsuit challenging California’s Proposition 12, which restricts the sale of pork and eggs from animals not housed under standards set by activist-backed measures. The pork processor contends that Prop 12 unlawfully overrides federal oversight, noting USDA already regulates inspection and compliance at meat and poultry plants.

“Congress has already acted and regulates pork production in our country,” said Triumph CEO Matt England, warning against a “patchwork of interfering state requirements.”

The case builds on Triumph’s earlier success in weakening Massachusetts’ Question 3 law under the Dormant Commerce Clause and expands Prop 12 challenges beyond pork to eggs, an issue previously raised by the U.S. Department of Justice.

The Supreme Court has so far declined to hear other Prop 12 challenges, including those brought by the Iowa Pork Producers Association and the National Pork Producers Council. Triumph points to past precedent, such as the 2011 National Meat Association v. Harris ruling, which affirmed that Congress—not individual states—holds authority over national food supply regulation.

Meanwhile, the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) has submitted comments to the Justice Department in response to a request from DOJ’s Office of Legal Policy for information that can help identify state laws that have out-of-state economic impacts. “NPPC singled out California Proposition 12 and Massachusetts Question 3, both of which ban in the state the sale of pork from hogs born to sows raised in housing that doesn’t meet their arbitrary standards,” the group said in a news release. 

“San Francisco’s 2017 Antibiotic Use in Food Animals Ordinance, for example, requires larger grocery retailers in the city to report detailed information about the use of antibiotics in meat and poultry products,” NPPC added. “It imposes significant reporting mandates on retailers that inevitably shift responsibility to producers, most of whom have no connection to San Francisco. In Chicago, to ensure that 'institutional food purchasing advances an equitable, healthy, fair, local, humane, and sustainable food system,’ pork was eliminated from the city school system’s menu.”

Screwworm case spurs US livestock movement concerns

Oklahoma vet urges vigilance as USDA ramps up response in Mexico

The Oklahoma Farm Report says the latest detection of New World screwworm near the U.S. border has “upped the level of urgency” for animal health officials. Oklahoma State Veterinarian Dr. Rod Hall told Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster Ron Hays that while the flies themselves are unlikely to naturally migrate far north, human-assisted livestock movements are the real risk. “This just emphasizes how movement of livestock, and in this case, cattle, can unnaturally move the infestation much more quickly than what Mother Nature will move it if left unchecked,” Hall said. He added, “I really don’t have a lot of concern about the screw worm flies moving into Texas, or certainly not into Oklahoma on their own,” but stressed that illegal or unchecked animal transfers change the equation.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins reported via X that “USDA landed boots on the ground this morning in Nuevo Leon, physically inspecting traps and dispersing sterile flies after the detection of the single case yesterday.” She emphasized that “the southern border remains closed to livestock trade, and we are aggressively expanding trapping and surveillance.”

Dr. Hall agreed that the proximity of the case — about 70 miles south of Laredo — makes preparedness more important. “It ups the level of urgency to be ready, just in case,” he said.

ADM shifts US feed mills into joint venture with Alltech

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) is transferring its 11 US feed mills into a new joint venture with Alltech, the agricultural products developer. Alltech will contribute 18 US mills and 15 Canadian mills to the partnership, becoming the majority owner. Governance will be shared, with equal representation on a board of directors overseeing the venture.

The deal does not include ADM’s feed operations in Mexico or other regions, and the company will retain its US premix and additives businesses. ADM emphasized the move as part of a broader effort to trim $500 million to $700 million in costs over five years.

Timeline: The companies expect the transaction to close and the new partnership to launch in the first quarter of 2026.

Brazilian beef exports surge despite US tariff hit

China drives growth as U.S. purchases tumble under Trump’s trade measures

Brazilian beef exports climbed 34% year-to-date through August 2025, reaching $10.84 billion with volumes up 19% to 2.41 million tonnes, according to industry group Abrafrigo. China remained the dominant buyer, increasing purchases by 41% to nearly $5 billion, while emerging markets like Mexico (+257%) and Russia (+62%) also boosted imports.

But sales to the United States told a different story. Shipments of fresh and processed beef to the U.S. fell 46% in August, reflecting the impact of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump (see related item in Trade Policy section). The decline knocked the U.S. out of its position as the second-largest destination that month, though it remained No. 2 overall when including byproducts such as beef tallow, totaling $136.4 million in August.

Of note: Abrafrigo emphasized that despite Washington’s barriers, 132 countries increased their Brazilian beef purchases through August, compared with only 42 that reduced imports.

More: Brazilian beef exports to the US hit by tariffs

Brazil was one of the world’s top exporters of frozen beef and lean trim, which is blended with U.S. fattier beef to make hamburger. Before the new 50% tariff, Brazil had been steadily increasing shipments to the U.S., especially in ground-beef markets where demand is strong and U.S. cow slaughter (a source of lean beef) has tightened. Since the tariff, exports from Brazil to the U.S. have dropped sharply — Reuters reported that September volumes were down and Brazil’s packers project about $1 billion in losses if tariffs remain.

Impact on US hamburger prices. US hamburger prices are sensitive to lean beef supplies. If imports drop, grinders have to bid higher for domestic lean beef (from cull cows and dairy). That tightens retail prices — hamburger inflation tends to be more pronounced than for premium beef cuts. By raising the landed cost of Brazilian beef 50%, the tariff essentially prices a lot of those imports out of the U.S. market, reducing supply and keeping wholesale ground beef prices elevated.

Would exempting Brazil make a difference? Yes, quite likely. Removing the extra tariff would immediately make Brazilian frozen beef (especially lean trim) more competitive again. That would boost imports, adding supply to the U.S. market and putting downward pressure on hamburger prices. However, the effect wouldn’t be instantaneous: Brazilian exporters would need to rebuild trade flows, and U.S. importers would want assurance that policy won’t flip again overnight. Also, the magnitude depends on quotas and sanitary rules — but Brazilian trim is already an established part of the U.S. grinder supply chain.

Political context. President Trump has been sensitive to food price optics, particularly on staples like beef, chicken, and gasoline. Saying he will “look into it” could mean a willingness to carve out an exemption if domestic hamburger prices become a political liability. But he would be balancing that against the tariff’s role as leverage in the U.S. – Brazil diplomatic standoff.

BOTTOM LINE: Exempting Brazilian beef would likely increase imports of lean beef trim used in hamburger production, helping to temper U.S. hamburger prices. The scale would depend on how quickly trade flows recover, but the directional effect is clear: more Brazilian beef = more supply = softer hamburger prices.

Cattle futures rally on New World Screwworm detection in northern Mexico

Cattle futures jumped to their highest level in nearly three weeks after U.S. officials confirmed the detection of New World screwworm just 70 miles from the Texas border. USDA said the parasite — fatal to cattle — was found in Nuevo León, marking its northernmost spread yet. Link for details. Live cattle futures in Chicago climbed as much as 2.3% Monday, while feeder cattle hit their daily limit.

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association called the spread “extremely concerning,” urging quicker government action, including accelerating sterile fly programs and approving new pesticides.

The outbreak also compounds supply pressures. U.S. imports of cattle, bison, and horses from Mexico have been paused since July, while beef prices remain elevated due to a shrinking U.S. herd and tariffs on Brazilian supplies. The case’s proximity to a major Monterrey–Laredo highway adds urgency, given the high-volume livestock traffic in the region.

USDA on major cattle supply plan amid biosecurity push

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is signaling that a wave of announcements is imminent, teasing a plan aimed at rebuilding the nation’s cattle herd and revitalizing the beef industry.

While the Department has not yet unveiled specifics, signals point to a package that could include direct rancher incentives, disaster relief expansions, and new biosecurity investments.

Rollins said the first pieces may arrive this week, but that could be an optimistic timeline. This is, however, setting the stage for a broader strategy to restore American herd strength, protect food security, and support ranchers navigating one of the lowest cattle inventories in decades.

Biosecurity Investments: The Screwworm Response

USDA’s most concrete step so far has been its fight against the New World Screwworm, a parasite that threatens livestock. The Department is investing up to $750 million in a sterile-fly production facility in Texas, capable of releasing 300 million sterile insects weekly. An additional $100 million is earmarked for interim technologies — detection, trapping, and field management — to safeguard America’s cattle supply. Officials have tied this effort directly to rancher security and national food resilience.

Border and Herd Management Policies

The screwworm outbreak prompted a temporary suspension of Mexican cattle imports earlier this year. USDA then moved to a phased reopening, but then closed the border again amid more screwworm issues in Mexico.

Adjusting import protocols and animal health checks could be part of the broader plan to secure and grow the U.S. herd.

Disaster Relief and Feed Support

Earlier this month, USDA announced $1 billion in assistance for livestock producers hit by floods and wildfires. The funds cover supplemental feed and grazing losses, directly helping ranchers maintain or rebuild herds. Analysts say topping up or widening these disaster relief programs would be a quick way to deliver ranch-level impact in any new package.

The Herd Rebuild Challenge

America’s cattle inventory is near multi-decade lows. Ranchers have just begun retaining more heifers — essential to herd expansion — but the biological lag means recovery will take years. This slow turnaround helps explain why USDA is signaling new incentives now: accelerating herd rebuilding requires financial support for ranchers to hold back breeding stock and restore pastureland.

What to Watch for Next

While USDA has yet to publish a standalone “cattle plan,” observers are watching for:

• Heifer-retention incentives or direct payments.
• Forage restoration grants to offset drought and disaster losses.
• Loan guarantees to ease capital pressures for herd rebuilding.
• Processing-capacity support, addressing bottlenecks in meatpacking.
• Federal Register notices formalizing regulatory or program changes.

While Rollins said announcements are coming this week, other sources signal that may be an optimistic timeline. Until then, Rollins teaser — nested inside its screwworm response press release — signals a broader policy effort designed to restore America’s cattle supply, protect food security, and strengthen the rural economy.

Comments: It will be interesting to see if the White House approves an exemption of the 50% additional tariffs put on Brazilian beef. USDA’s supporting staff, including Undersecretary of Trade Luke Lindbergh and others, definitely know about the cattle cycle, and it is a 5–7-year cycle, which means when you are at the bottom of the cycle as we are now, it will take time (2-3 years) to see the impact of heifer retention and expansion of beef production.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (9/19) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $1.7500. The weekly average for Grade AA is $1.7910 (-0.1655). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.6400 and 40# blocks at $1.6500. The weekly average for barrels is $1.6290 (-0.0315) and blocks $1.6525 (-0.0010). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1475. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.1475 (-0.0415). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.6400. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.6170 (+0.0295).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Contacts in the Central region report light domestic butter demand, while contacts elsewhere in the country report steady or stronger domestic butter demand. Demand from international buyers is mixed. Cream is readily available and more affordable for Class IV manufacturers. Some stakeholders indicate it is challenging to find homes for cream. Butter production schedules are generally stronger. CME closing butter prices are more stable in week 38 than week 37, however, they are lower as well. CME closed at $1.8200 on Monday, September 15 compared to $2.0250 on Monday, September 8. Bulk butter overages range from 2 cents below to 5 cents above market across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese production in the East is running lighter as downtime at a facility and seasonal weather challenges diminish output. Manufacturers are leaning more on spot milk and adjusting condensed skim use to balance needs. Retail demand is steady, export interest is consistent, and inventories remain firm. Mild temperatures across the Central region are giving processors more milk to work with, though additional bottling has trimmed spot availability. Cheese production is steady overall, with some reports of increased Class III demand. Domestic demand is moderate, while exports are described as strong compared to a year ago. In the West, cheese makers report smooth access to spot milk and steady contract volumes. Production schedules remain consistent, though the mix of cheese load availability varies. Retail demand is holding steady, food service demand is soft, and export demand is mixed. U.S. cheese is viewed as competitively priced, but overseas values are weaker.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Nationwide, milk output is on the rise. Each region is reporting increased output, particularly in the northern parts of the regions. Milk components remain high, with some contacts stating they haven’t seen this much cream available on the market in some time. Class I bottling production is steady to strong with some bottlers securing spot loads of milk. Class II production is increasing in some areas. Extended shelf-life heavy whipping cream production is increasing to meet seasonal demand. Class III production is generally steady. Milk availability for Class III is somewhat scarce with few spot sales this week. Spot prices for Class III range from flat to $2 over. Class IV demand is softening. There is plenty of cream in each region. With the excess cream and softening demand, cream multiples fell at the top of the range. In the East, cream destined for churns was selling in some cases below the CME price. Contacts noted that it has been years since they’ve seen cream multiples in the West outpace the East. Condensed skim demand dropped this week as well. Condensed skim availability remains plentiful. Prices for condensed skim are flat to under Class price. Cream multiples for all classes range: 0.90 – 1.28 in the East; 1.00 – 1.26 in the Midwest; 1.00 – 1.19 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices moved lower in all regions this week as contacts continue to note softening domestic demand and readily available supplies. High heat NDM moved lower in most areas, though the Central region reported a slight increase at the top of the range. Dry buttermilk prices saw mixed movement, inching up in the Central region while slipping in the West. Dry whey prices either held firm or posted modest increases across the reporting areas, except at the top of range in the West. The whey protein concentrate 34% (WPC 34%) market weakened, with the top of the range edging down alongside a decline at the upper end of the mostly range. Lactose prices held unchanged across the full range, though the bottom of the mostly series moved higher as buyers remained active. Acid casein prices inched up at the top of the range, while rennet casein values were unchanged.

ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: The Fall 2025 meeting of the National Organic Standard Board (NOSB) is scheduled for November 4-6 in Omaha, NE. The NOSB meets biannually to discuss recommendations for the USDA to aid in developing and refining organic standards. The online comment period is open through October 8, and online webinars regarding public comments will be hosted on October 28 and 30. The Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) reported July 2025 estimated fluid product sales. The U.S. sale of total organic milk products was 242 million pounds, down 5.7 percent from the previous year. Federal Milk Market Order 1, in the Northeast, reports utilization of types of organic milk by regulated plants. During August 2025, organic whole milk utilization totaled 17.24 million pounds, down from 18.52 million pounds the previous year.