25 July 2025

12 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

South America

North America

Asia

Weekly USDA US beef, pork export sales

Beef: Net sales of 16,700 MT for 2025 were up 90 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for South Korea (9,000 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Japan (2,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Taiwan (1,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Hong Kong (1,100 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), and Canada (1,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 12,500 MT were up 22 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (3,600 MT), South Korea (3,500 MT), Mexico (1,400 MT), Taiwan (1,300 MT), and Canada (1,000 MT).

Pork: Net sales of 17,000 MT for 2025 were down 1 percent from the previous week and 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (7,200 MT, including decreases of 900 MT), Colombia (3,100 MT), Japan (2,200 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Canada (1,900 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), and South Korea (1,000 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), were offset by reductions for China (400 MT). Exports of 27,600 MT were up 4 percent from the previous week, but down 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (11,800 MT), Japan (4,300 MT), China (2,800 MT), South Korea (2,200 MT), and Canada (1,500 MT).

US beef imports from Brazil collapse amid tariff shock

Volumes down 80% since April; industry scrambles ahead of Aug. 1 deadline

U.S. imports of Brazilian beef have plummeted 80% in just three months, as President Donald Trump’s tariff crackdown begins to bite. Shipments tumbled from 47,800 tons in April — when a 10% tariff took effect — to just 9,700 tons so far in July. The looming 50% surcharge, scheduled for Aug. 1, is already reshaping trade flows and forcing exporters to reroute containers to beat the deadline.

Sharp decline in volume:

• April: 47,800 tons
• May: 27,400 tons
• June: 18,200 tons
• July (to date): 9,700 tons — an 80% drop from April

Rising prices for US buyers: Average import prices rose from $5,200/ton in April to $5,850/ton this week, a 12.5% increase, reflecting tighter supply and pre-emptive shipping costs.

Quota overrun: Brazil has already exported over 181,500 tons of beef to the US in the first half of 2025 — nearly three times its annual quota of 65,000 tons — meaning most exports are already facing steep tariffs even before the 50% surcharge.

Production impact: Some Brazilian meatpackers, including in Mato Grosso do Sul, have suspended shipments to the U.S., while other exporters are diverting cargo to alternate ports to ensure US entry before the Aug. 1 hike.

Brazil’s Vice President Geraldo Alckmin has begun a consultation series with industry leaders, as the government seeks to craft a trade response. Meanwhile, the US has reportedly linked any talks to unrelated issues, including Supreme Court actions involving former President Jair Bolsonaro.

The US is Brazil’s second-largest beef export market after China, and Brazil remains the largest beef supplier to the US Despite record exports in early 2025, the current trajectory signals a severe correction if no deal is reached.

About 70% of Brazil’s beef is consumed domestically. Most U.S.-bound exports consist of forequarter cuts for hamburger production — a lower-margin export at risk of becoming uncompetitive under new tariffs.

Chicken prices fall in Brazil despite early July demand

High supply and school holidays weigh on domestic market

Although early July typically sees stronger demand that lifts chicken prices, values fell in many regions surveyed by Cepea during the first week of the month. The decline is linked to an oversupply of chicken meat relative to current demand. According to Cepea, the elevated supply is a lingering effect of trade restrictions imposed by some countries following a case of avian influenza confirmed in Rio Grande do Sul in May. While key trading partners have since resumed imports, the domestic market has yet to find balance between supply and demand. Cepea analysts also noted that Brazil’s school holiday period has contributed to softer demand, reinforcing the downward pressure on prices.

China’s beef and dairy sectors stabilize with state backing

Policy measures pull industries out of last year’s downturn, with further support on the horizon

Chinese beef and dairy farmers have rebounded from 2024’s prolonged downturn, thanks to targeted government intervention and new policy commitments, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA).

Beef sector back in the black. After a challenging 2024, China’s beef industry returned to profitability in the second quarter of 2025. MARA data shows beef prices have ticked upwards since February, making cattle farming profitable for the past three months. Officials credit this to state support and market adjustments.

Dairy reforms show results — but not profits yet. China’s large Holstein dairy herd shrank by 4.2% year-on-year by June, and per-unit production costs dropped by 7.7%. While these measures have improved market performance, the sector has yet to achieve profitability. Key reforms include tighter control over capacity and efforts to cut costs.

New national standards and industry support. MARA announced additional policies to bolster fresh milk demand, including a new regulation effective September 2025 banning reconstituted milk in sterilized milk products. This is expected to drive up demand — and prices — for fresh milk. Other initiatives include expanding domestic forage crop supplies and introducing enhanced beef grading standards to raise beef quality and market value.

Strategic importance and import investigations. Beef and dairy farming are seen as strategic priorities by Beijing, both for food security and the productive use of China’s rural pastures. This ensures government support when markets struggle. Meanwhile, Beijing’s trade investigations into imported beef and EU dairy products are ongoing, and MARA officials declined to comment on the impact of imports — a sign these probes may continue into the coming weeks.

Outlook: With Chinese authorities prioritizing self-sufficiency in core food industries, additional measures supporting beef and dairy farmers appear likely, particularly as the results of trade investigations unfold. Policymakers are expected to intervene further if market volatility returns.

Southern Ag Today: Retail beef prices may ease slightly, but don’t expect a full reversal

Wholesale declines signal modest relief ahead, though prices likely to stay above year-ago levels

Record-high retail beef prices reported in the latest Consumer Price Index are raising alarms among consumers, but signs from the wholesale market suggest some relief may be on the way. According to David Anderson, Professor and Extension Economist at Texas A&M, writing in Southern Ag Today (link), the current spike stems from reduced slaughter and beef production in Q2 just as seasonal grilling demand surged.

However, the wholesale market is now trending downward. The Choice boxed beef cutout has declined for four straight weeks since hitting a record $394 per cwt, with all seven primal cuts seeing price drops. Ribeyes, which typically peak before Memorial Day, have fallen from $14.18 to $10.50 per pound. Loin strips also dropped from $11.84 to $9.68 per pound after peaking near July 4.

Boneless beef prices (especially 90% and 50% lean) remain elevated—50% lean hit an all-time high of $2.62/lb—but may decline with seasonally easing demand. Retail prices tend to lag wholesale changes, so consumers could see easing prices in the coming months, though they’re unlikely to fall below 2024 levels.

Anderson also previewed the upcoming USDA Cattle on Feed report due Friday, which could shed light on longer-term supply pressures. Particular attention will be on heifer placements — especially in Texas, where a ban on Mexican feeder cattle may affect numbers.

Beef prices are the new egg prices

Record-high beef costs reflect decade-long supply crunch and strong demand

Beef prices have surged nearly 9% since January and now average $9.26 per pound, with steak and ground beef up 12.4% and 10.3% year-over-year, respectively. Unlike the egg price spike driven by avian flu, experts say the beef price surge is tied to more entrenched, long-term factors — including historic droughts, shrinking cattle herds, and rising feed costs.

“Beef is way more complicated than eggs,” Michael Swanson, chief agriculture economist at Wells Fargo, told CNN. “The cattle industry is still the ‘Wild West’ of the protein market.”

Cattle herds are at their lowest levels in 74 years, and some ranchers are exiting the business due to razor-thin margins. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, drought has forced ranchers to rely on expensive feed, accelerating cost pressures.

Meanwhile, imports from Argentina, Australia, and Brazil now make up about 8% of U.S. beef consumption, while exports have dropped 22% from last year. Despite high prices, demand remains strong — prompting retailers like Walmart to open their own beef processing facilities to reduce costs.

Still, the future may hinge on consumers. “If consumer confidence falls alongside household financial uncertainty, demand for beef could be at risk,” said AFBF economist Bernt Nelson. Swanson warned the industry may be nearing a peak: “Nobody wants to be caught holding the bag with higher-priced cattle when prices start to decline — which they will inevitably.”

China’s pork imports steady

China imported 90,000 MT of pork during June, unchanged from the previous month and year-ago. Through the first half of 2025, China imported 540,000 MT of pork, up 4.9% from the same period last year.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (7/18) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.5125. The weekly average for Grade AA is $2.5385 (-0.0575). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.6600 and 40# blocks at $1.6425. The weekly average for barrels is $1.6560 (-0.0540) and blocks $1.6355 (-0.0480). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.2900. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.2805 (+0.0145). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.5575. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.5685 (-0.0180).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Stakeholders for all three regions report steady domestic demand, and retail demand is more robust than food service demand. Competitive US butter prices are keeping export demand strong. Although spot loads of cream are available, some butter producers report spot cream loads that are affordable are not. Butter production schedules are mixed. Some butter manufacturers note churns are not running at full capacities. Bulk butter overages range from 7 cents below to 5 cents above market across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Last week, the CME weekly average fell for both block and barrel cheese. The trend continues this week. The price for barrels is currently $0.04 below last week's average. For blocks, the price is nearly $0.06 below last week's average. Contract loads for Class III are sufficient to meet current demand. Contacts in the Midwest report milk temperatures in recent weeks contributed to a slight uptick in milk output, but remains down from June. As of reporting, Class III milk prices range from $3-under to flat. Downtime at some plants is contributing to lighter regional output. Export cheese demand is strong, as cheese produced domestically is currently offered at lower prices than cheese produced internationally. Cheese production is steady in the West, though some plant managers say declining milk output is causing them to look for spot milk volumes to maintain production schedules. Cheese is available for purchase, though manufacturers note strong export demand is keeping inventories for some varieties of cheese tighter than others.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Nationwide, rising temperatures contributed to a decrease in milk volume this week, except for the c Midwest, which is holding steady due to milder weather conditions. Milk components are declining during the summer months but remain higher than this time last year. Class I milk production remains low, though contacts say they anticipate interest to pick up near the end of July. Class II production is strong. Ice cream manufacturers are nearing the peak of the summer and are increasing production. Producers are pulling additional cream, condensed skim and condensed buttermilk. Spot loads of each product are available for ice cream manufacturing. Class III production is steady to strong this week. Some facilities are pulling larger than normal amounts of condensed skim in addition to spot loads of milk. Class III spot load prices range from $3 under to $2 over this week. Class IV production is slowing nationwide. Manufacturers are purchasing spot loads of milk to keep churns full. Cream multiples increased nationwide. Condensed skim is tight, and sales are strong. Class II and Class III purchases of condensed skim were reported. Condensed skim price range went from $.20 over to $.35 over Class price. Cream multiples for all Classes range 1.17-1.35 in the East, 1.20-1.32 in the Midwest, and 1.07-1.27 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: In the West, low/medium heat NDM prices were unchanged, but prices moved higher in the Central and East regions this week. Contacts report low/medium heat NDM production is steady in the Central and East regions but is mixed in the West. Prices increased at the bottom of the Central and East high heat NDM price range, but were unchanged at the top and across the range in the West. Across all regions, dry buttermilk prices were steady this week. Dry whole milk prices increased this week. Production is primarily focused on meeting contractual demands, leaving inventories tight, despite light demand. Dry whey prices were unchanged this week. In the East and West regions, contacts reported lighter spot trading this week. were unchanged, but the mostly price series moved lower for both commodities. Lactose inventories are tight and domestic demand is strong. The price ranges for acid and rennet casein both held steady this week.

INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS

WEST EUROPE: Drought in Europe for mid-June shows slowly improving conditions in central Europe, while in eastern Europe the situation is continuously worsening. During a 10-day period in June, temperatures were above seasonal averages in most of southern Europe and in southern Scandinavia, with severe heatwaves in southern France and Italy.

EAST EUROPE: According to CLAL data made available to USDA, the year-to-date milk deliveries and percentage changes from January-May 2025 for some of the top Eastern EU milk producers are Poland, 5,846,000 MT, +0.8 percent; Czech Republic, 1,423,000 MT, 1.8 percent; and Hungary, 777,000 MT, +3.0 percent.

OCEANIA: AUSTRALIA: The June 2025 Production Inputs Monitor report was recently released by Dairy Australia. Except for Victoria, all Australian states recorded below-average rainfall totals in June, maintaining dry conditions throughout most of the country. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) announced it would not block a large, non-Australian firm from purchasing several businesses belonging to an Oceania-based cooperative.

NEW ZEALAND: New Zealand dairy farmers took advantage of strong milk prices throughout the 2024/25 marketing year to pay down debt and increase investments. Between October 2024 and March 2025, New Zealand dairy farmers paid down $1.7 billion of debt according to a recent report. Following GDT event 384, a group in New Zealand that forecasts milk prices increased their milk price forecast for the 2025/2026 season by 3 cents from $10.08 per kilogram milk solids (kgMS) to $10.11/kgMS.

SOUTH AMERICA: South American milk production is strengthening during their high season. Industry sources indicate cow comfort is leading to better milk output and higher composition of the milk. Skim and whole milk powder demands for export are mixed. Contacts indicate that buyers are not very active and only buying to fill immediate needs.