China soybean imports fall early in year on delayed shipments
Arrivals expected to rebound as Brazil harvest advances
10 March 2026
1 minute read
By: China's soybean imports fell in the first two months of the year, weighed down by most US shipments yet to arrive, slower Brazilian harvests, and extended customs clearance, Reuters reported, citing analysts.
Imports are expected to recover in the coming months as more US shipments reach Chinese ports and Brazil's record crop comes on stream.
China combines data for January and February to smooth out the impact of the Lunar New Year holiday, which may fall in either month in a given year.
China's soybean imports for January and February fell 7.8% to 12.55 million metric tons, customs data showed, but remained above analysts' expectations of 11.1 million tons.
Rosa Wang, an analyst at Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI, said January–February arrivals were about 1 million tons higher than they expected.
March arrivals are estimated at around 6.4 million tons, Wang added, compared with 3.5 million tons in the same month last year.
"Most initial US shipments arrived only in late February, limiting their impact, while slower Brazilian harvests and logistics delayed arrivals at Chinese ports. Extended customs clearance further constrained imports," said Liu Jinlu, an agricultural researcher at Guoyuan Futures.
"Amid ample South American supplies, domestic soybean imports are expected to improve in the coming months," Liu added.
Trade tensions delayed Chinese purchases of the US autumn soybean harvest until late October, after the two countries' leaders met to ease ties.
Since then, China has imported roughly 12 million metric tons of US soybeans, signalling goodwill ahead of a highly anticipated summit in the coming weeks.
Last month, US President Donald Trump said China was considering buying an additional 8 million tons of US soybeans, though traders remained sceptical as higher prices made purchases less economical.
In Brazil, farmers had harvested 51% of their 2025/26 soybean crop as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up 12 percentage points from the previous week but below the 61% reported a year earlier.
