US WASDE report predicts higher beef output and lower dairy production in final quarter

The World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) forecast for 2021 has beef production rising as slaughter numbers slow
calendar icon 14 October 2021
clock icon 2 minute read

WASDE has raised beef production from the previous month as lower expected steer and heifer slaughter are more than offset by higher cow slaughter and heavier average carcass weights.

For 2022, the total red meat and poultry forecast is reduced from the previous month. Although higher expected placements of cattle in second half 2021 are expected to support higher early-year supplies of fed cattle, placements in the first half of 2022 are lowered and fed cattle supplies in the second half or 2022 are expected to be tighter.

2021 and 2022 exports

Beef import forecasts are raised reflecting continued strength in demand while the export forecasts are unchanged.

Fed cattle prices for 2021 are lowered on current price movements and relatively large supplies of fed cattle. However, the 2022 price forecast is raised on tighter expected supplies of cattle.

The dairy production outlook 

Milk production forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are reduced from last month on smaller dairy cow numbers and slower growth in milk per cow. For 2021 and 2022, fat basis import forecasts are unchanged from the previous month, while the fat basis export forecasts are raised on stronger expected sales of cheese and butterfat containing products.

The skim-solids basis import forecast for 2021 is lowered slightly on weaker expected imports of milk protein concentrates, but the 2022 forecast is unchanged. Skim-solids basis export forecast for 2021 is reduced on weaker sales of skim milk powder, whey, and lactose; however, the forecast for 2022 is unchanged.

For 2021, cheese, non-fat dry milk (NDM), and whey price forecasts are raised on current prices and lower expected production. The butter price is lowered slightly on current prices. For 2022, all dairy product prices are raised, largely on tighter supplies.

The 2021 and 2022 Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised from last month on higher dairy product prices. The 2021 all milk price is forecast higher at $18.45 per cwt. The all milk price forecast for 2022 is $19.20 per cwt.

Read the full WASDE report here

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