Allendale Releases Cattle on Feed, Cold Storage Estimates

ANALYSIS - May Placements are expected to be 7.9 per cent lower than last year, according to Rich Nelson, Allendale chief strategist.

18 June 2014

2 minute read

North America

USDA's cattle feeding margin ended the month with $146 per head profits on outgoing cattle. While there are still profits on outgoing cattle, feedlots are showing resistance against high priced feeders. These are penciling losses of $150 to $250 per head.

Corn averaged $4.97 in Western Kansas in May ($5.02 in April, $6.98 in May 2013). May placements help supply the October through January slaughter period.

Allendale anticipates a Marketing total 8.1 per cent lower than May 2013. There was a 3.7 per cent calendar day adjustment this month. This would be the smallest May Marketing in the current data that goes back to 1996. The bulge in Marketings expected in June and July is now in question. Either feedlots are holding market-ready numbers back or USDA's winter placement data was incorrect.

Total Cattle on Feed as of June 1 now totals 1.1 per cent under last year.

Allendale projects a 551 million lb. total pork stock level for the end of May. The five year average is 575 million lbs. for the end of May. Allendale's estimate represents a decrease of 33 million lb. from the previous month. The five year average month to month change for May is a 26 million lb. decrease.

Beef stocks, at 378 million lbs., are above the five year average of 442. This month's number represents a 24 million lb. draw-down from the previous month. The five year average change is a 9 million lb. decrease.