Weekly protein report - Tyson agrees to settlement in price-fixing case

9 January 2026

15 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

Lean hog futures pull back amid slipping cash hog prices… February lean hog futures on Wednesday fell 87 1/2 cents to $84.80. Futures saw routine profit-taking pressure after prices hit a 2.5-month high on Monday. Also negative for futures, cash hog prices have begun to slip lately. Still, the February lean hog futures contract is above the latest CME lean hog index, which is price-friendly for futures. The latest CME lean hog index is down 8 cents to $81.54. Today’s projected cash index price is down another 29 cents at $81.25.

Cattle futures see corrective pullbacks

February live cattle on Wednesday fell $2.10 to $234.525. March feeder cattle lost $3.525 to $355.50. The cattle futures markets saw profit-taking pressure from the speculative traders, following recent gains that pushed the markets to 10-week highs. Beef packer margins that are presently in the red also limited buying interest in cattle futures. USDA reported very light cash cattle trading taking place so far this week at $232.00. USDA reported last week’s average cash cattle trade at $231.68—up $2.35 from the week prior. World Weather Inc. said that cold rains and snow in the Plains in the coming days may cause some livestock stress from southeastern Colorado into the northern Texas Panhandle and into southwestern Kansas Friday.

Weekly USDA US beef, pork export sales

Beef: Net US sales 10,600 MT for 2026 marketing year, which began January 1, were primarily for South Korea (4,400 MT, including decreases of 200 MT and 1,500 MT - late), Mexico (1,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT and 300 MT - late), Taiwan (1,500 MT), Japan (1,200 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), and Canada (800 MT). Net sales of 2,200 MT were carried over from the 2025 marketing year, which ended December 31. Exports for the period ending December 31 of 12,700 MT brought accumulated exports to 697,000 MT, down 14 percent from the prior year’s total of 797,700 MT. The primary destinations were to South Korea (5,200 MT, including 1,500 MT - late), Japan (3,500 MT), Taiwan (1,300 MT), Mexico (1,000 MT, including 300 MT - late), and Hong Kong (700 MT). Exports for January 1 of 200 MT were to Japan (100 MT) and South Korea (100 MT). Late Reporting:  For 2025, net sales and exports totaling 1,819 MT of beef were reported late for South Korea (1,503 MT) and Mexico (316 MT).  

Pork: Net US sales of 27,700 MT for 2026 marketing year, which began January 1, were primarily for Mexico (12,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Japan (8,700 MT), South Korea (2,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), China (1,300 MT), and Colombia (700 MT). Net sales reductions of 400 MT were carried over from the 2025 marketing year, which ended December 31. Exports for the period ending December 31 of 25,800 MT brought accumulated exports to 1,548,800 MT, down 8 percent from the prior year’s total of 1,677,600 MT. The primarily destinations were to Mexico (13,200 MT), Japan (3,400 MT), China (2,600 MT, including 1,200 MT - late), South Korea (1,700 MT), and Canada (1,300 MT). Exports for January 1 of 400 MT were primarily to China (100 MT), Japan (100 MT), and the Dominican Republic (100 MT).

African Swine Fever cases on the rise

Spain has recorded 18 more cases of the deadly African swine fever (ASF) virus in Catalonia as authorities bring in drones and helicopters to help contain the outbreak.

On Monday, officials reported 18 additional wild boar deaths, bringing the tally up to almost 50. According to The Independent, officials say the rise was due to wider testing in hard-to-reach areas, explored by air over the holidays. Officials emphasized that this has been an “accumulation” of cases reported, and not a “sudden” spike.

Spain ramped up containment efforts in December, bringing in dogs and military personnel to help track the disease. More than 620 boars have been analyzed in recent weeks, with around 8% testing positive for the virus, the article said.

Dietary guidelines spark food fight as Kennedy targets sugar, embraces meat and dairy 

New federal nutrition guidance reshapes school meals, SNAP rules and military food programs — drawing praise from meat and dairy groups and sharp criticism from some health advocates

 Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. declared that the long-running “war on saturated fats is over,” shifting the focus of the new Dietary Guidelines toward a crackdown on added sugars and a strong discouragement of ultraprocessed foods. 

Kennedy blamed decades of corporate influence and prior administrations for promoting highly processed diets that have fueled US obesity rates, while emphasizing that the guidelines were developed with input from groups including the American Medical Association and the American Academy of Pediatrics.

 “The new guidelines recognize that whole, nutrient-dense food is the most effective path to better health and lower health care costs,” Kennedy said. “Protein and healthy fats are essential, and were wrongly discouraged in prior dietary guidelines.” He added: “We are ending the war on saturated fats. Our government declares war on added-sugar today.”

The guidelines do not change limits on saturated fats but do encourage eating “healthy fat,” which they say includes beef tallow and butter as well as olive oil.  They also include a new, inverted food pyramid, emphasizing the consumption of fruits and vegetables along with protein, dairy and “healthy fats,” to replace the MyPlate chart that had previously provided visual guidance for American diets.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the new guidelines will be applied broadly across federal programs, triggering rewrites of school meal standards, food served to the military and veterans, meals in federal prisons, the Head Start program and purchasing rules under the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC). 

Rollins also announced plans to overhaul the SNAP “stocking rule,” which governs what the more than 250,000 SNAP-authorized retailers must carry — changes she said are especially important for convenience stores that serve as primary food outlets in low-income neighborhoods.

The guidelines do not define ultra-processed or highly processed foods, but warn about foods that are salty or sweet, sugar-sweetened beverages, artificial flavors, petroleum-based dyes, artificial preservatives and low-calorie non-nutritive sweeteners in food and drink.

The revamped food pyramid prominently features a slab of beef, a thick wedge of cheese, and a half gallon of whole milk as foods that should form the core of Americans’ diets.

Health groups offered a mixed response. The American Heart Association praised the guidelines’ emphasis on fruits, vegetables, whole grains and limits on added sugars and ultraprocessed foods, calling it an opportunity to better educate consumers on nutrition science. At the same time, the group warned that recommendations on salt seasoning, red meat and whole-fat dairy could inadvertently push Americans above safe limits for sodium and saturated fat. The Heart Association reiterated its preference for low-fat and fat-free dairy and urged consumers to prioritize plant-based proteins, seafood and lean meats until more research clarifies optimal protein intake.

School nutrition advocates as usual focused on implementation challenges. The School Nutrition Association acknowledged earlier concerns that cutting ultraprocessed foods could raise costs but said Congress now has an opportunity to invest in scratch cooking and more fresh, local foods, pledging to work with the administration on updated standards.

Industry reaction was swift and largely supportive

Meat and poultry groups welcomed the emphasis on protein. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association said the guidelines “are simplified and more consumer-friendly than previous cycles” and keep “science-backed recommendations at the heart of the DGAs, but makes them far more practical for the families, caregivers, school administrators and medical professionals who are making decisions every day about what to feed our children, seniors and Americans of all ages.”

Dairy organizations hailed the endorsement of whole and full-fat dairy as a win for consumer choice and nutrient density. National Milk Producers Federation President & CEO Gregg Doud said the guidelines “encourage consumption of dairy nutrients critical to human health. Meanwhile, not all fats are created equal, and because the guidelines acknowledge this, dairy’s benefits are better reflected in this iteration of the guidelines.”

Tyson Foods agrees to $82.5 million settlement in beef price-fixing case

Deal would resolve grocers’ claims that major meatpackers conspired to restrict supply and inflate beef prices from 2015 to 2022

Tyson Foods reached a proposed $82.5 million settlement with grocers and other business buyers who accused the company of conspiring to inflate beef prices by restricting supply, according to court filings.

The agreement, which still must be finalized and approved by a judge in the US District Court for the District of Minnesota, would resolve claims that Tyson and other large meatpackers coordinated actions to drive up prices for retail beef cuts and boxed beef between 2015 and 2022.

Tyson is the second major defendant to settle in the long-running antitrust case. JBS USA previously agreed to pay $52.5 million to resolve similar allegations.

The lawsuit continues against the remaining defendants, Cargill and National Beef. According to Reuters, those companies did not respond to requests for comment.

If approved, the Tyson settlement would mark another significant step toward resolving claims that consolidation among the largest meatpackers harmed competition and raised costs for downstream buyers across the US beef market.

More New World Screwworm cases reported in Mexico

Mexican authorities reported a case of the New World Screwworm parasite late last week, Reuters said, the second case reported in two days as Mexico works to contain an outbreak that has kept the US-Mexico border closed to Mexican livestock. The parasite was detected and treated in a goat in the State of Mexico, which borders capital Mexico City, the ministry said, adding that the 20 other animals at the site tested negative and were given preventive treatment. 

On December 31, the ministry reported a case in a six-day-old cow calf in the northern state of Tamaulipas, also the only positive case on site. Mexico has so far reported a total of 13,106 cases since November of 2024, according to government data through December 31, 2025. Of those cases, 671 were active currently. The southern border state of Chiapas has the most confirmed cases, followed by Oaxaca, Veracruz and Yucatan.

Mexico to reimpose tariffs on foods, including beef, pork and milk

Mexico says it will reimpose tariffs on several staple foods including beef, pork and milk in an attempt to favor local supplies, according to a decree from President Claudia Sheinbaum’s office and as reported by Bloomberg. 

“The move underscores an ongoing shift away from decades of mostly free-trade polices pursued by previous Mexican governments. The unspecified tariff rates will also be applied to paddy rice, beans, vegetable oils and sausages and go into effect on Jan. 1," according to the decree published Wednesday in the official gazette. 

The decree is part of Sheinbaum’s “Plan Mexico” initiative to boost domestic industry and reduce imports. The products had been exempted from Mexican import duties beginning in 2022, part of an anti-inflation program to lower prices on a couple dozen popular foods. 

The decision to revive the tariffs followed an analysis of recent inflationary pressures and the growth rate of imports from countries with which Mexico does not have a free trade agreement. Many imported foods, such as poultry, fish, eggs, vegetables and fruit, will remain tariff-free, according to the decree,” said Bloomberg.

China’s beef quotas could push Brazilian and Australian supplies toward the US

New Chinese import limits may divert surplus beef from Brazil and Australia into the US market, easing prices as American cattle herds remain tight

China’s move to cap beef imports starting Jan. 1 is set to ripple far beyond its own market, with a growing likelihood that displaced supplies from Brazil and Australia will be redirected toward the United States.

Under the new safeguard regime announced by China, beef shipments exceeding annual quotas will face a punitive 55% tariff. While total quota volumes rise modestly through 2028, they fall well short of recent import levels. Brazil alone shipped roughly 1.7 million tons of beef to China in 2025, but its 2026 allocation is just over 1 million tons — leaving a sizable volume in search of alternative buyers.

That excess supply is likely to pressure global prices and strengthen incentives to sell into the US, the world’s largest beef market. American demand has stayed resilient even as domestic cattle herds have shrunk, tightening supplies of lean beef used heavily in ground beef. With President Donald Trump moving to reduce tariffs on select food imports to address grocery inflation, the US market could become an increasingly attractive outlet for exporters squeezed by China’s cap.

Australia faces a similar dynamic. Industry groups warn the quotas could cut Australian beef exports to China by roughly a third, freeing up product that must be placed elsewhere. Even incremental redirection of Australian or Brazilian beef into the US can weigh on prices, given the scale of American consumption.

The policy also affects major multinational processors with global footprints, including JBS NV and Tyson Foods Inc, whose shares dipped following the announcement. However, while the measures limit access to China, they may simultaneously improve margins or volumes in other markets if cheaper beef stimulates demand.

BOTTOM LINE: China’s effort to shield its domestic cattle sector could end up reshaping global beef trade, with the US emerging as a key pressure valve for surplus Brazilian and Australian exports — potentially easing prices for American consumers in 2026.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (1/2) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $1.3750. The weekly average for Grade AA is $1.3956 (-0.0019). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.4000 and 40# blocks at $1.3900. The weekly average for barrels is $1.4000 (-0.0050) and blocks $1.3738 (+0.0382). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.1750. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.1738 (-0.0025). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.7250. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.7300 (+0.0112). 

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Domestic butter demand is mixed throughout the country. Manufacturers indicate demand from grocers is strengthening as they further restock inventories after holiday season customer purchases. West and Central region stakeholders note stronger export butter demand than East region stakeholders. Cream volumes are strong and plenty of loads are available for butter manufacturers with the holidays at hand. Butter production schedules are stronger despite plant managers conveying some downtime during the back-to-back holiday week. Production of butter for domestic buyers is meeting or outpacing demands. 82 percent butterfat butter loads for international buyers are tight. Bulk butter overages range from 2 cents below to 5 cents above market across all regions. 

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Cheese production in the East was steady across the region. Demand trends are easing as buyers enter January with lighter orders. Milk output is strong in the Central region and spot volumes are plentiful due to downtime for the New Year holiday. Even with scheduled downtime for the holiday, many cheesemakers are running busy production schedules to work through the available milk supply. Demand for cheese barrels is increasing but curd sales are slow. Exports are steady to strong. Barrel inventories are snug, but blocks remain available. Cheese production in the West is in a steady state despite the holiday. Most cheese makers are taking contractual volumes. Spot purchases were scarce despite availability. Retail demand is steady to lighter with many buyers avoiding excess inventory. Export demand is strong. 

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Milk production is seasonally strong nationwide. Each region is reporting an abundance of milk as the holiday season ends. Fat components in milk remain strong providing ample amounts of cream for the market. Class I facilities began taking in larger amounts of milk as educational institutions resume classes. Class II demand is light, and many producers operated at a limited capacity during the holidays. Class III manufacturing was mixed. Some facilities operated at full capacity to utilize spot volumes of milk, while other facilities were at a limited capacity due to the holidays. Class III spot milk prices ranged from $9.50-under to flat Class price. Class IV production is steady to strong. Most butter makers are operating at or near capacity and taking in extra loads of milk and cream to build inventories for 2026. Condensed skim is readily available nationwide and selling under class price. Cream multiples for all Classes range: 0.90 – 1.20 in the East; 0.85 – 1.05 in the Midwest; 0.80 – 1.13 in the West. 

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: In the West, the price ranges for low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) and for high heat NDM were unchanged. The bottoms of the low/medium heat and high heat NDM price ranges moved higher in the Central and East regions, but prices were steady at the tops of both. Across all regions, the price ranges for both dry buttermilk and dry whey are unchanged this week. Contacts say the year end holidays contributed to lighter spot market activity this week. Dry whey production remains limited nationwide as plant schedules are geared toward higher whey protein concentrates. The top of the price range for lactose moved lower, while the bottom was unchanged. Whey protein concentrate 34% prices increased at the bottom of the range and decreased at the top. The price range for dry whole milk is unchanged. Prices for acid casein declined at the bottom of the range, while the top of the range and both ends of the rennet casein price range are unchanged. 

INTERNATIONAL DAIRY MARKET NEWS

WEST EUROPE: China has implemented provisional tariffs of approximately 22% to 43% on certain dairy products from the EU, including milk, cream and selected cheeses. The action occurs in the context of ongoing trade discussions between China and the EU and may influence trade flows between the two markets. In the 2025 bluetongue season in Great Britain, government figures show 266 confirmed cases of the bluetongue virus, primarily serotype 3, with most detections in England and some in Wales 

EAST EUROPE: Plans are underway in Romania to increase milk processing capacity with a new facility focused on skimmed milk and cream, as part of broader efforts to enhance the dairy value chain and accommodate higher volumes. 

OCEANIA: AUSTRALIA: Milk production data from Australia for November 2025 were recently released by Dairy Australia. These data show total November 2025 milk production was 849.2 million liters, down 18.8 million liters (2.2 percent) year over year. Milk production in Victoria, Australia's largest milk-producing state, was down 3.1 percent year over year. Production across other Australian states was mixed. 

NEW ZEALAND: Milk production data from New Zealand for November 2025 were recently released. These data show total November 2025 production was 2.95 million metric tons, up 2.4 percent compared to a year earlier. During November 2025, total milk solids production increased by 2.6 percent from the previous year to 252.2 million kilograms. 

SOUTH AMERICA: In Argentina and Uruguay, milk output through November 2025 remained above year-ago levels, supported by favorable weather and efficient production systems. Brazil and Chile also contributed to the region's heavy supply. Cheese production in both Argentina and Brazil is projected to increase further.