12 September 2025

12 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

South America

North America

Asia

China wants hog producers to cut production

China’s government has summoned its biggest hog producers to discuss measures to cut pork production, in its latest move to tackle oversupply and bolster pork prices, reports Bloomberg. Some 25 farming operations have been asked to gather in Beijing on Sept. 16 to share their plans on output control and highlight measures taken so far, according to a notice issued to the firms by China’s agriculture ministry and viewed by Bloomberg. 

Attendees must submit details of their targets for cutting sow numbers by January and their production plans for the year ahead, the ministry’s animal husbandry bureau said. The meeting, first reported by local media, will include the government’s top economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission. China, the world’s largest pork producer, has urged farmers to cut the nation’s breeding herd this year to deal with a supply glut and deflationary pressures in the economy. Wholesale prices of pork have dropped almost 25% the past year as consumption has weakened due to China’s economic slowdown.

USDA reports on Brazil livestock sector

Brazil is the second largest beef producing country and the largest beef exporting country in the world. USDA expects decreased slaughter in 2026, due to the estimated start of the reversion of the cattle cycle in the second half of 2025. Producers are likely to begin holding cattle from the market starting in 2025, driving calf prices upwards. Record beef exports are forecasted for 2026. Domestic consumption is forecasted to decrease, as producers will prioritize exports, driven by strong external demand, devalued local currency, and challenges faced by foreign competitors. The swine industry is expected to increase in both production and slaughter in 2026. As a result, USDA forecasts increased pork production, stable domestic consumption, and record exports in 2026.

Brazil’s beef exports hit new heights in 2025

Shipments surge past $9.6 billion through August, driven by Chinese demand and higher prices

Brazilian fresh beef exports soared to $9.6 billion in the first eight months of 2025, a 34.5% jump from last year’s record, according to Secex data. Export volumes also surged, with 1.83 million metric tonnes shipped by August, nearly 15% higher than 2024.

China continues to dominate, taking over half of Brazil’s beef exports — worth $5 billion — while US purchases slipped in global ranking despite holding second place year-to-date. Rising average prices, hitting $5.60/kg in August, added momentum. With revenue already nearing $10 billion before year-end, analysts expect Brazil to set another annual record, reinforcing its status as the world’s top beef exporter.

USDA on track for Emergency Livestock Relief Program (ELRP) rollout

OMB clears final rule as agency prepares flood and wildfire aid; ECAP update

USDA is moving forward with its plan to announce the ELRP for flooding and wildfire losses on non-federal lands during the week of Sept. 8. The agency is on pace to meet that timeline after the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) completed its review of the final rule earlier this month. The program will aid producers facing losses from higher supplemental feed costs caused by flooding and by wildfires occurring on non-federally managed lands in 2023 or 2024. USDA sent the plan to OMB on Sept. 3 for clearance.

USDA has already distributed significant support through ELRP, paying out $705.1 million for the 2023 program year and $338.2 million for 2024.

Meanwhile, payments under the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) continue to edge higher. USDA has now disbursed $8.03 billion across 560,657 approved applications.

Perdue Farms laying off workers in Indiana

Shifting consumer tastes and a shrinking turkey flock are prompting Perdue Farms Inc. to lay off nearly 300 workers at a processing facility in Washington, Indiana, Bloomberg reports. Turkey production last year in the U.S. fell to a three-decade low, according to USDA. Farmers are struggling against the worst-ever avian influenza outbreak, rising costs due to inflation and an increasing shift toward beef, pork or chicken as the holiday centerpiece of holiday meals, said the report. “Changes in consumer demand, decreasing turkey flocks, and how we produce and supply our products have impacted the Washington operations in recent years, making the change to one production shift necessary to achieve operational efficiencies,” Perdue said in an emailed statement, according to Bloomberg.

USDA’s Canada Poultry and Products Annual

Chicken meat production is forecast one percent higher in 2026, based on stable demand, adequate domestic supply, and steady imports. The overall 2026 import TRQ volumes will approach 121,600 metric tons, with the United States expected to maintain more than 80 percent share of total Canadian chicken meat imports. In 2025, as the only country taking advantage of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) poultry tariff rate quota (TRQ) and as a new emerging supplier, Chile continued to gain import market share, a trend expected to continue into 2026.

USDA’s China Livestock and Products Annual

USDA forecasts stable pork production in 2026 and reduced pork imports due to abundant domestic supplies. Post anticipates lower beef production and slightly higher imports to meet demand in price-sensitive segments. Retaliatory tariffs and unresolved facility registration issues continue to limit U.S. meat access to the Chinese market.

HPAI infects US Turkey Flocks

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza detected in North and South Dakota commercial operations

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), specifically the H5 subtype, has been confirmed in commercial turkey farms in both North Dakota and South Dakota. These are the first U.S. commercial turkey flock cases since early July.

• South Dakota (Faulk County): On August 28, 2025, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed an outbreak at a turkey farm in Faulk County. The farm housed approximately 55,400 birds, all of which were humanely depopulated to prevent further spread.
• North Dakota (Dickey County): A few days later, around the first weekend of September, the North Dakota Department of Agriculture reported a confirmed case at a turkey farm in Dickey County, which borders South Dakota. This outbreak affected around 60,000 birds.

Combined impact: North and South Dakota together have seen 168,300 turkeys affected over the past 30 days — by far the most of any states in that timeframe.

Public health assessment: Authorities emphasize that there is no immediate public health concern. The risk to humans remains very low, and there have been no reported human infections in North Dakota.

Seasonal trend insight: North Dakota Agriculture Commissioner Doug Goehring noted that after a quieter summer, these detections are not unexpected as wild birds begin their fall migration, a common driver of HPAI spread.

How the HPAI detections in North and South Dakota turkey flocks could impact U.S. turkey production and trade:

Impact on turkey production

1. Direct loss of birds

• The confirmed outbreaks have already led to over 115,000 birds culled across the two states (55,400 in SD and ~60,000 in ND). USDA depopulates entire flocks once HPAI is detected to stop further spread.
• Nearly 170,000 turkeys across the Dakotas were lost in the past 30 days, the largest state-level impact nationwide.

2. Regional significance

• South Dakota is the 4th-largest U.S. turkey producer, with around 5 million birds marketed annually.
• North Dakota produces fewer turkeys, but outbreaks there still raise risks for nearby operations given cross-border movements of feed, trucks, and wild birds.

3. Seasonal production risks

• These outbreaks are occurring just weeks before the fall/holiday production peak (Thanksgiving and Christmas), when turkey demand surges.
• Any further spread could constrain supplies and raise processing plant scheduling issues if birds are not available in sufficient numbers.

Trade implications

1. Export market sensitivity

• Many countries impose immediate bans on poultry imports from states or regions with HPAI cases.
• Past HPAI outbreaks led to statewide or nationwide bans from key buyers (China, Mexico, South Korea, EU). Even if bans are localized, they can shrink U.S. export volumes.

2. Current market share

• The U.S. exported 8–10% of turkey production in recent years. Top markets: Mexico, Canada, China, Dominican Republic, and Benin.
• Mexico is especially critical — it buys nearly two-thirds of U.S. turkey exports. If Mexico restricts imports from South Dakota, shipments could decline sharply.

3. Price dynamics

• Domestic market: Lower bird supply could support higher wholesale turkey prices ahead of the holidays.
• Export market: Trade restrictions would redirect product back into the U.S., offsetting some shortages but also creating regional price volatility.
• Feed markets: A sudden drop in turkey placements could trim corn and soybean meal demand, but the effect is small compared with broilers and hogs.

Outlook

• Short-term: Expect price firming in retail and wholesale turkey markets, especially for whole birds headed into Thanksgiving.
• Medium-term: If outbreaks spread to Minnesota (the top U.S. producer), impacts could be severe, both for domestic supply and for trade flows.
• Trade watch: Exporters will be watching Mexico’s response most closely. Even a partial ban could shift significant volumes back to the domestic market.

China slaps preliminary tariffs on EU pork

Beijing imposes duties up to 62.4% in retaliation for EU’s EV tariffs

China’s Ministry of Commerce on Friday announced preliminary anti-dumping duties of up to 62.4% on more than $2 billion worth of pork imports from the European Union. The move, which takes effect Sept. 10, follows an investigation that found EU producers were dumping pork products at prices harmful to China’s domestic industry.

Spanish, Danish, and Dutch firms cooperating with the probe face duties of 15.6% to 32.7%, while all other exporters will be hit with the maximum 62.4%. Analysts view the tariffs as retaliation for the EU’s levies on Chinese electric vehicles, further straining trade ties. Much of the EU’s pork exports to China are offal products like pig ears and feet, which have limited alternative markets.

China is the world’s largest pork consumer. Some 700 million hogs – more than half the world’s annual output – are eaten each year by the country’s 1.4 billion people.

The European Union is China’s biggest source of imported pork, accounting for more than half the overseas supply shipped between 2020 and 2023, according to the China Animal Agriculture Association. Spanish companies led the charge, sending over 280,000 tonnes of pork and derivative products during the first half of 2025 according to EU data, with those from the Netherlands and Denmark behind by a wide margin.

The decision is preliminary and could change before the investigation concludes in December, but experts say hopes for a negotiated solution are dimming.

Global food prices remain elevated

The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index was at 130.1 in August, the highest since February 2023 and little changed from 130 in July. Vegetable oil prices went up 1.4% to the highest level since June 2022, driven by quotations for palm, sunflower and rapeseed oils, which more than offset a slight decline in soyoil values. Meat costs increased 0.6% to reach a new record high, driven by continuing higher bovine and ovine meat prices, which outweighed stable pig meat prices and lower poultry meat prices. Also, sugar prices edged up 0.2%, mostly driven by concerns over Brazil’s production outlook, amid reduced sugarcane yields and low sugar recovery rates in key southern growing regions. Conversely, dairy prices fell 1.3%, reflecting lower international prices for butter, cheese, and whole milk powder. Cereals cost fell 0.8% to the lowest since September 2020. Wheat prices declined amid ample global supplies and subdued import demand, especially from major buyers in Asia and North Africa.

Weekly USDA dairy report

CME GROUP CASH MARKETS (9/5) BUTTER: Grade AA closed at $2.0225. The weekly average for Grade AA is $2.0156 (-0.1054). CHEESE: Barrels closed at $1.7000 and 40# blocks at $1.6900. The weekly average for barrels is $1.7506 (-0.0304) and blocks $1.7375 (-0.0455). NONFAT DRY MILK: Grade A closed at $1.2200. The weekly average for Grade A is $1.2356 (-0.0214). DRY WHEY: Extra grade dry whey closed at $0.5650. The weekly average for dry whey is $0.5681 (+0.0051).

BUTTER HIGHLIGHTS: Domestic demand for butter is steady. Export demand varies from steady to strong. Stakeholders indicate fat components continue to be strong and that is keeping available spot cream volumes more than sufficient. Demand from butter manufacturers for spot cream loads is mixed. Some butter manufacturers are limiting volume to contractual intakes. Production schedules are stronger in some cases, but churning operations are not at full capacity. Butter manufacturers are more focused on retail butter production than bulk butter production. Bulk butter overages range from 2 cents below to 5 cents above market across all regions.

CHEESE HIGHLIGHTS: Across the East, cheese markets remain balanced as production and demand move in step. Through the Central region, cheese production is holding steady to lighter. Domestic demand is described as modest, while export demand remains strong. Out West, cheese makers are meeting contractual needs even as bottling demand pulls more milk. Production remains steady. Domestic demand is steady but not overly strong, while export activity reflects a more mixed but generally firm tone.

FLUID MILK HIGHLIGHTS: Milk production varied throughout the nation this week. Summer temperatures continue to keep milk output low in most areas. Colder temperatures in the northern parts of the country are having a positive impact on cow comfort. Higher milk components are keeping cream available for production demands. Class I bottling production is strong as most educational institutions are now in their fall semesters. Class II production is steady to lighter. Ice cream production is decreasing nationally. Class III production remains steady. Spot loads of milk are available but tight. Reported prices of spot milk for Class III range from $2.50 under to $2.00 over this week. Class IV demand is mixed. Cream is readily available for spot purchase. Condensed skim demand is heavy in the Northeast and steady in the West. Spot purchases of condensed skim are going from $0.15 - $0.27 over Class price. Cream multiples for all Classes range: 1.15 – 1.34 in the East; 1.05 – 1.32 in the Midwest; 1.13 – 1.26 in the West.

DRY PRODUCTS HIGHLIGHTS: Prices for low/medium heat nonfat dry milk (NDM) decreased across all ranges in the Central and East regions, while the West saw gains at the bottom of the range and at both ends of the mostly range. High heat NDM moved lower overall, except for the top of the West range which increased. Dry buttermilk prices were unchanged. Dry whole milk extended its downward movement, falling across the range again this week. Dry whey held steady in the Central and East regions, while prices in the West moved higher. The whey protein concentrate 34% price range softened at the top. Lactose values increased, reflecting firm demand. Acid casein pricing was steady, with no changes noted this week.

ORGANIC DAIRY MARKET NEWS: The Pennsylvania Monthly Organic Dairy Report, a report created as part of the Organic Dairy Initiative sponsored by the 2018 farm bill, covering June 2025 was released on September 5, 2025. This report showed the weighted average price for fluid milk decreased by 2.01 percent from May. The Vermont Monthly Organic Dairy Report, a report created as part of the Organic Dairy Initiative sponsored by the 2018 farm bill, covering June 2025 was released on September 5, 2025. This report showed the weighted-average price for fluid milk increased 1.14 percent from May. European organic milk average pay prices for June 2025 increased in Austria, France, Germany, and Bavaria compared to May. The average pay price in June 2025 was up from a year ago in Austria, France, Germany, and Bavaria.