USDA raises milk output forecast but cuts milk price outlook
Cheese prices revised lower as butter forecast edges up
10 July 2026
1 minute read
By: The USDA has raised its 2026 US milk production forecast by 1.0 billion pounds to 236.4 billion pounds, reflecting upward revisions to both cow numbers and milk per cow, according to the agency's June livestock, dairy and poultry outlook.
The forecast for the average number of dairy cows was revised up by 25,000 head to 9.645 million, while milk per cow was raised 40 pounds to 24,510 pounds.
Dairy export forecasts were also adjusted upward, with higher volumes projected for cheese, butter and dried whey products. On a milk-fat basis, 2026 dairy exports are now forecast at 20.6 billion pounds, while on a skim-solids basis the forecast was revised to 49.4 billion pounds. Domestic use forecasts were also raised, with milk-fat basis domestic use projected at 223.0 billion pounds and skim-solids basis at 192.8 billion pounds.
On prices, the 2026 average forecasts for cheddar cheese, nonfat dry milk and dry whey were revised downward to $1.610, $1.700 and $0.660 per pound respectively. The butter price forecast was raised to $1.740 per pound on stronger-than-expected domestic use.
Milk class prices were adjusted accordingly. The Class III milk price forecast was lowered to $16.60 per hundredweight and the Class IV forecast to $19.35 per hundredweight. The all-milk price for 2026 is now forecast at $20.70 per hundredweight, down 55 cents from the previous forecast.
