USDA lifts 2025 milk output forecast on herd, yield gains
Strong cheese, butter exports offset weaker milk prices
9 October 2025
2 minute read
By: US milk production for 2025 is projected at 230.0 billion pounds, up by 0.8 billion pounds from the last forecast, according to the US Department of Agriculture's Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook for September. This change is due to an increase in both the average number of cows (+10,000 head) and milk per cow (+55 pounds). This forecast is supported by recent data on milk cow numbers and dairy slaughter. US dairy herd is forecast to average 9.460 million head and milk per cow is forecast at 24,310 pounds in 2025.
With continued strength in cheese and butter exports, the dairy export forecasts for 2025 are adjusted upward from last month’s forecast. On a milk-fat basis, 2025 dairy exports are forecast at 15.6 (+1.0) billion pounds, while on a skim-solids basis the 2025 dairy export forecast is revised to 48.0 (+0.3) billion pounds. These adjustments also take into consideration the expectations that US export prices for butter and cheese will maintain their competitive margins in the global markets. Higher expected shipments for cheese and butter are expected to more than offset lower projected shipments for dry skim milk products and lactose.
The dairy import forecasts for 2025 have been revised downward from the previous month’s forecast to 8.1 (-0.2) billion pounds on a milk-fat basis, and to 6.9 (-0.1) billion pounds on a skim-solid basis. A reduction in imports is anticipated across most dairy products.
Year-to-date data on domestic use shows a decline on a milk-fat basis and robust growth on a skim-solids basis. As a result, the domestic use forecasts for 2025 are revised from the previous month’s forecast accordingly. On a milk-fat basis, domestic use in 2025 is projected lower to 221.8 (-1.1) billion pounds, while on a skim-solids basis, it is forecast higher at 187.3 (+1.5) billion pounds.
Based on recent declines in product prices and increased milk production, the 2025 average price forecasts for Cheddar cheese, butter, and NDM have been revised downward as follows: $1.815 (-2.5 cents), $2.360 (-16.0 cents), and $1.255 (-2.0 cents) per pound, respectively. The 2025 average price for dry whey is $0.575 per pound, unchanged from the previous forecast.
The changes in the product price forecasts support downward revisions for milk class prices as follows: for Class III milk to $18.20 (-$0.30) per cwt and for Class IV to $18.15 (-$0.80) per cwt. The all-milk price for 2025 is now forecast at $21.35, down $0.65 from the previous forecast.
