Tight supplies define US beef outlook for 2025
Herd contraction slows but production expected to fall
15 April 2025
2 minute read
By: The US cattle sector is entering 2025 with the smallest national herd in decades and limited room for expansion, according to the USDA’s Livestock and Poultry Outlook. Commercial beef production is forecast to decline nearly 2% this year, dipping to 26.6 billion pounds.
The January 1 cattle inventory stood at 86.7 million head—the lowest since 1951—marking the sixth consecutive year of contraction. While the rate of decline has slowed, strong feeder cattle prices are discouraging producers from holding back heifers for breeding, hampering herd rebuilding efforts.
The number of cattle on feed was down 1% at the start of the year, and feeder calf supplies remain tight. As a result, feedlot placements are expected to decline in 2025, leading to lower steer and heifer slaughter. Cow slaughter fell 15% in 2024 and is projected to stay low, particularly as forage conditions continue to improve in key regions.
Fed steer prices are forecast to average $201 per cwt in 2025, up from $187.12 in 2024. Early-year prices have already broken the $200 threshold, driven by strong beef demand and limited supply. Feeder cattle prices are also trending higher, with 750–800 lb calves forecast to average $274 per cwt—up 9% from the previous year.
Beef exports, which slipped 1% in 2024, are expected to fall another 7% this year due to tighter domestic supplies. In contrast, beef imports are forecast to rise 3% to 4.77 billion pounds, as processors seek lean beef to fill the gap left by reduced cow slaughter.
While average carcass weights are expected to rise slightly, the gains won’t fully offset the lower head count. The industry’s ability to expand remains constrained, and meaningful herd rebuilding is unlikely until 2026 or beyond.
