Japan’s beef output dips as Wagyu dominates market - USDA FAS
Fewer cattle, high costs strain 2025 supply
18 April 2025
1 minute read
By: Beef production in Japan is projected to dip slightly in 2025 to 500,000 metric tons carcass weight equivalent (CWE), according to a recent report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service in Tokyo. The decline follows a 2024 uptick in slaughter, which pushed beginning cattle stocks down 2% year-over-year to 3.9 million head
Due to high import costs, cattle imports remained at zero in both 2024 and 2025. Along with tighter beginning stocks, this is expected to contribute to minimal slaughter and reduced beef production. According to the report, Wagyu production continues to expand as producers chase premium carcass prices.
According to Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), slaughter numbers for Wagyu cattle rose 3% in 2024, while crossbreed and dairy cow numbers declined up to 5%. Limited availability of affordable beef is straining domestic supply, especially as inflation pushes consumers to seek cheaper alternatives to imported meat.
Though compound feed costs eased somewhat in 2024, the population of crossbreeds is shrinking and may fall short of meeting rising demand in 2025. Ending beef stocks remain high, but FAS/Tokyo notes that a recovery in consumer confidence is needed to draw them down.
