Japanese beef consumption to remain flat in 2024 - GAIN
Customers purchasing 9% less beef, but paying 3% more for it
By: Tokyo projects that Japan’s beef consumption will be flat in 2024 year on year, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report. Retail demand is dimmed by ongoing inflation, which will at least partly offset a spike in demand fuelled by tourism and foreign visitors.
On May 8, the government of Japan reclassified COVID-19’s category to Class 5 under the Act on the Prevention of Infectious Diseases and Medical Care for Patients with Infectious Diseases. For diseases categorised in Class 5, the government does not require individuals to take any restrictive protection or control measures in daily living.
After nearly three years of restricted movement and limited dining options, social gatherings, dining out, and travel are again widespread throughout Japan. Sales in the hotel, restaurant, and institutional sectors, some 60% of total beef consumption, now surpass pre-COVID-19 levels in most types of restaurants.
Burger chain restaurants, categorised as Western-style fast food restaurants, had steady sales through the COVID-19 pandemic and continue to do so. Beef bowl chain restaurants, which are Japanese style fast food restaurants, had fewer customers during COVID-19 pandemic since many office workers were working from home. This year they have largely recovered their customer base. And Yakiniku restaurants, which feature at-table meat grills, are now popular among families.
More foreign visitors have fuelled demand in the hotels and restaurant sector, too. The May 8th reclassification of COVID-19 to Class 5 removed all social restrictions that were used to control spread of the disease. Prior to that, all COVID-19 related border controls had been lifted as of April 29. The number of overseas visitors to Japan surged and in the first 6-months of 2023 reached 34% of the total visitors in 2019.
Nevertheless, inflation is forcing households and consumers to be more price-conscious in selecting products and services. Retail demand for beef is relatively price elastic and consumers have shifted some demand to less expensive products such as pork or chicken.
According to a household survey published by Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIAC), compared to 2019, in 2022 consumers purchased 3% less beef but paid 8% more for it. And in the first five months of 2023, consumers purchased 9% less beef, but paid 3% more for it than in 2019.
Tokyo assumes that tourism will continue to stimulate beef consumption in the hotel and restaurant sectors in the second half of 2023 through 2024, but inflation will slow growth, so overall total beef consumption in 2024 will be flat year on year.
2 May 2024
2
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