Global beef output set to fall further in 2025, Rabobank says
Mexico faces 2026 uncertainty as screwworm curbs cattle exports
1 December 2025
1 minute read
By: Beef production in key producing and consuming regions is expected to contract by 0.8% in 2025 compared to 2024 volumes, according to a recent market report from Rabobank.
New Zealand is expected to experience the largest percentage drop in production, and the US is expected to see the largest drop in volume. The contraction in beef production is likely to continue in 2026, with an estimated drop of 3.1%. Key regions where production is expected to decline include Brazil, the US and Canada.
Global cattle prices high or rising
Northern Hemisphere cattle prices remained elevated in comparison to Southern Hemisphere prices. A slight contraction in US and Canadian prices through September and into October may be more a result of seasonal conditions rather than any increase in supply, with production volumes still forecast to contract further. With the exception of Argentina, Southern Hemisphere cattle prices all edged higher through September and October.
Focus on Mexico: What to expect in 2026
Mexico’s cattle and beef sector is entering 2026 at a pivotal moment. After two consecutive years of herd contraction – driven by drought and strong export incentives – the supply situation is finally stabilising. However, the adjustment remains uneven, influenced by disease-related (screwworm) border restrictions, shifting trade flows, and volatile domestic prices, margins and costs.
The screwworm shock: What happened and why it mattered
In late 2024, Mexico faced a re-emergence of New World Screwworm, a parasite that attacks warm-blooded animals and requires rapid eradication. The outbreak triggered export restrictions from the US, and all exports of Mexican cattle to the US were paused. The economic impact extended beyond logistics – producers faced additional costs for monitoring, treatment, and reporting, while authorities mobilized emergency eradication programs. While investment in control and eradication programs is underway, RaboResearch expects live cattle exports to the US will not normalize before the first half of 2026 – and possibly later, depending on biological success rates.
