Brazil cattle production forecast to decline 4% in 2024 - GAIN

Brazil to remain the world's largest exporter of beef
calendar icon 18 September 2023
clock icon 2 minute read

Brazil cattle production is forecast to increase 1% in 2023, reaching 48.5 million head of cattle, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report. Production is expected to decline by 4% in 2024.

Record crops for corn and soybean can stimulate confinement and semi-confinement production. Brazil is at the bottom of the cattle cycle and is liquidating inventories. Slaughter is forecasted to increase 7% in 2023 and 2% in 2024. Industry reports an increase in the slaughter of cows, which should impact birth rates for 2024. 

Animal disease is not expected to be an issue in 2023 or 2024. Post forecasts exports of live cattle at 375 thousand head of cattle for 2023 and 455 thousand head of cattle for 2024. For both 2023 and 2024, Post forecasts imports will remain minimal and focused on genetic improvement.

The USDA post forecasts beef production at 11.16 million metric tons (MMT) carcass weight equivalent (CWE) for 2023, which represents an 8% increase from 2022. 

For 2024, the USDA post forecasts beef production at 11.38 MMT CWE, accounting for a 2% increase. 

Post forecasts beef consumption in 2023 at 7.86 MMT CWE and 8.04 MMT CWE in 2024. These forecasts are based on increased availability of beef in the domestic market, caused by increased slaughter rates and improving economic scenario. 

According to the report, Brazil is forecast to remain the world's largest exporter of beef, exporting 3.35 MMT CWE in 2023 and 3.40 MMT CWE in 2024. Exports will account for 30% of production. This forecast considers increased production, strong external demand for beef, and competitors facing challenges with production. Post forecasts beef imports for 2023 at 57 thousand metric tons CWE and 60 thousand metric tons CWE in 2024.

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