Brazil beef demand seen firm as global supply tightens
Fed cattle prices may trend higher amid limited production
27 January 2026
1 minute read
By: Domestic and international demand for Brazilian beef is expected to remain firm, while production faces constraints that could limit growth next year, according to an outlook from Cepea.
National beef output could increase in 2026, but gains may be capped by challenges on the supply side, particularly the availability of quality animals. Prices for fed cattle and beef are expected to show an upward trend.
Globally, projections point to a decline in beef supply, a factor that could support higher prices. Brazil became the world’s largest beef producer in 2025, according to data recently released by the US Department of Agriculture. For the first time, Brazil is estimated to have produced more beef than the United States.
On the demand side, China remains a key market, accounting for nearly half of Brazil’s beef exports. The Chinese economy is expected to grow by about 5%, which analysts say should be sufficient to sustain beef purchases at elevated levels. Overall, the international environment remains largely favourable for Brazilian beef.
Brazil has diversified its export destinations in 2025, with shipments to some trade partners more than doubling during the year.
On the production front, securing suitable lots of lean cattle is seen as the main challenge. Limited availability of high-quality animals has already pushed up prices for lean cattle and calves. Based on previous market cycles, calf prices could continue to rise until late 2026 or early 2027.
Overall, demand is expected to stay strong, while production may post only modest growth under the most favourable scenario. Margins in the cattle-fattening sector could remain tight, increasing the need for productivity gains to offset higher costs.
