Weekly Cattle Outlook: Steers and Beef Breaks Records
US - Both slaughter steer prices and beef carcass cutout values set new record highs this week, write agricultural economists Ron Plain and Scott Brown.
13 January 2014
3 minute read
Through Thursday, the 5-area average price for slaughter steers sold on a live weight basis was $139.54/cwt, up $2.08 from a week ago and up $13.18 from a year ago, according to the experts from the University of Missouri.
Steer sales on a dressed basis averaged a record $221.48/cwt this week, up $4.34 from last week and up $17.38 from a year ago.
This morning, the boxed beef cutout value for choice carcasses was $214.61/cwt, up $12.34 from the previous Friday and up $20.39 from a year ago. The select carcass cutout is $211.48/cwt, up $14.11 for the week and up $27.67 from the same day last year.
USDA's January supply and demand report (WASDE) trimmed the size of the 2013 corn crop by 64 million bushels to 13.925 billion. They increased the number of acres harvested by 0.5 million, but reduced the average yield from 160.4 bushels per acre to 158.8 bu/ac. They are still predicting a marketing year average price close to $4.40/bu.
USDA raised their forecast of 2014 beef production by 0.5 per cent to 24.32 billion pounds and they raised the predicted slaughter steer price by $1 to $133.50/cwt. USDA is now predicting 2014 will have 5.4 per cent less beef, but 1.7 per cent more pork, 3.0 per cent more chicken, and 1.5 per cent more turkey than in 2013. Total U.S. red meat and poultry production is expected to be up 0.2 per cent in 2014.
Retail meat demand was up 3.2 per cent in November with beef demand up 0.8 per cent , pork demand up 5.9 per cent , broiler up 2.1 per cent , and turkey up 14.2 per cent . Export demand for beef and pork were higher in November, but export demand for broiler and turkey meat were lower.
The U.S. economy added 74,000 jobs in December, the fewest for any month since May 2011. That is not encouraging news for domestic meat demand.
This week's cattle slaughter totaled 569,000 head, up 9.2 per cent from last week, but down 9.1 per cent from the corresponding week last year. The average steer dressed weight for the week ending on December 28 was 872 pounds, up 1 pound from the week before, but down 1 pound from a year earlier.
Feeder cattle prices at this week's Oklahoma City auction were $3 to $8 higher than the last sale before Christmas. This week's prices for medium and large frame #1 steers by weight were: 400-450# $227-$246, 450-500# $212-$229, 500-550# $201-$220, 550-600# $186-$203, 600-650# $170-$195, 650-700# $164-$193, 700-750# $160.50-$179, 750-800# $162-$176, 800-900# $158-$165, and 900-1000# $150-$158.25/cwt.
The February live cattle futures contract closed at $136.70/cwt today, up 40 cents from last week's close. April fed cattle settled at $136.97, up 40 cents for the week. June settled at $130.25/cwt, up 20 cents. The January feeder cattle futures contract ended the week at $168.65/cwt, up $1.03 for the week. March feeders closed at $167.65/cwt, which is 45 cents lower than the previous Friday.
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