US Beef Prices Could Limit Japanese Imports
JAPAN & US - The combination of the historically low number of US cattle and soaring grain prices (especially corn) that were caused by the severe 2012 drought in the United States, now appear to be affecting the prospects for Japan’s 2013 beef import outlook, according to the US Foreign Agricultural Service.Surging US beef prices in 2012 may carry into next
year, effectively limiting Japan’s prospective imports in 2013 resulting in a stable level of Japan’s
overall beef consumption.
Although, Japan’s pork market enjoyed a high level of imports and consumption in the past, this may no
longer be the case. Japan’s pork sales, especially in the retail and the food service, have stalled this year
due a large (and thereby cost-competitive) surplus poultry meat. Pork sales are now expected to adjust
downward slightly in 2013 in response to low market prices and weakening demand and FAS projects
weak growth in Japan’s pork market in 2013.
At the same time, it is expected that Japan’s high dependence on imported grains will raise prices of
livestock feeds for the forecast year. This sets a rather difficult tone for 2013 for Japanese livestock
producers’ market outlook for their already relatively expensive domestic beef, especially for cuts from
high-grade Wagyu carcasses.
In early September 2012, Japan’s Food Safety Commission (FSC) concluded its review of the domestic
BSE border measures. The FSC advised that the BSE risk for US and Canadian beef imports is
negligible to human health even if the age restriction threshold were to be increased to 30 months or
younger. The FSC recommendation is now in the public comment period until October 10th. No final
date for revision of Japan’s import restrictions for beef has been announced. Japanese import growth
scenarios specific to American beef depend on its price outlook in 2013, which is generally expected to
be higher than 2012.
Further ReadingYou can view the full report by clicking here. |
TheCattleSite News Desk