LMC: Retail Beef Prices Edge Higher In Autumn
NORTHERN IRELAND, UK - Farmgate beef prices have been significantly higher than 2010 levels throughout 2011 and until the autumn the impact of this on retail prices had been negligible with reports of processors struggling to pass these higher prices on to retail level.
However, throughout the
autumn we have begun to see increases in retail
beef prices in GB relative to the same period last
year, and as a consequence, retail demand has
come under some degree of pressure.
GB is the biggest market for the NI beef industry
and in the four weeks ended 31 October 2011,
Kantar have reported that the average price of
beef in GB was £6.50. This was seven per cent
(47p/kg) more than in the same period last year
when the average price was reported at £6.03.
This is a significant increase and reflects what
has been going on at farmgate level in NI and
elsewhere in the UK over the course of the last
year.
The result of these higher retail prices in October
has been reduced retail demand year-on-year.
However, it is encouraging that the reduction in
demand has not been proportionate to the
increase in price. Volume sales have fallen by five
per cent in October compared to the same period
last year, however, Figure 2 clearly shows how the
seasonal increase in demand this autumn has
continued regardless.
The combination of the
seven per cent increase in price and the five per
cent decline in volume sales, is a two per cent
increase in expenditure which is very positive in
these straightened economic times.
The reduction in demand has been caused by a
two per cent decline in penetration, meaning that
there has been a slight decline in the proportion
of consumers that have beef on their shopping
list. A three per cent decline in the average weight
per purchase shows that those consumers that
have put beef in the trolley are buying slightly
smaller volumes.
In October, there were year-on-year declines in sales of all beef cuts with the
exception of stewing. Stewing volumes increased
by a modest 2.5 per cent in October, perhaps
indicating that consumers may be more inclined
to trade down in a higher price environment.
If
this is the case, there been no such benefit in
terms of mince demand as its sales were down
by three per cent in October, with frying / grilling
sales down by five per cent. Roasting sales were
down by a substantial 16 per cent compared to
the same period last year.
In October, lamb sales remained sluggish with
prices 13 per cent higher than during the same
period last year. The average retail price of lamb
was £8.52/kg in October. These higher prices
have led to significant reductions in volume sales
and lamb spend.
Volume sales are down 18 per
cent year-on-year, with expenditure on lamb down
by eight per cent as a result of the combination of
higher prices and reduced volumes.
In October, sales of lamb stewing and mince were
down by four and nine per cent respectively. The
most significant volume declines were for leg
roastings (-35 per cent) and chop steaks (-20 per cent).
In some respects it is worth noting that the high
price of lamb is simply a reflection of reduced
availability due to a vibrant export trade.
Consumers cannot buy lamb if is not on the
supermarket shelves. However, there is a longer
term concern that consumers may take lamb off
the menu altogether if an out-of-sight / out-ofmind scenario was to prevail.
This indeed is a concern. In the last month,
penetration of lamb was down by 14 per cent
year-on-year, with only a fifth of consumers
purchasing lamb. The industry will be anxious to
see an end to such sharp year-on-year declines in
sales.
TheCattleSite News Desk