Upwards Revision For US Beef Imports
US - US beef import forecasts for 2010 have been revised up after a two per cent year-on-year increase in June and a slow down in US domestic cow slaughter. However, even after the upwards revision, beef imports for 2010 are still forecast to come in at one per cent below year ago levels, at 1.18 million tonnes cwt (USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report).
20 August 2010
2 minute read
Driving the lower beef import volumes during the first half of 2010 had been tight supplies from Australia, New Zealand (NZ) and Uruguay. Competition from other markets and lower beef production has seen Australian beef exports to the US lower in the first half of this year. However, export volumes did lift by two per cent to the US during July, reports Meat and Livestock Australia.
According to the US Customs Bureau, beef imports from Canada and Mexico are currently tracking 13 per cent and 39 per cent, respectively, above year ago levels. Despite a slow start to the year, imports from NZ over May and June were also at higher volumes, given an increase in NZ beef production. Recent NZ export data, however, shows imports to the US are anticipated to fall below year ago levels again in coming months.
US beef imports in 2011 are expected to increase seven per cent on 2010 levels, with the USDA forecasting a total of 1.26 million tonnes cwt. MLA is forecasting Australian exports to the US to recover 13 per cent in 2011, to 270,000 tonnes swt.
In contrast, to the USDA forecasts, Steiner Consulting Group are more bearish on US beef import volumes in 2011, based on forecasts for a weak US$ and an expectation of other global markets to remain competitive into 2011. According to the Steiner Consulting Group, US beef imports in 2011 are expected to increase marginally, to 1.13 million tonnes cwt.
Regardless of a large or slight boost in US beef imports next year, imported manufacturing beef prices throughout the year are still expected to remain above 2010 levels and the five year average, given lower US beef production and an expected improvement in the US foodservice sector.
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