LMC Report: Falling Global Demand for Meat Predicted

US - In a recent report the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicted that global meat import demand will fall across all categories in 2009 for the first time in more than a decade.

1 May 2009

2 minute read

North America

This negative assessment of the meat market predicts that global pork imports will fall by 13 per cent and poultry imports will fall by two per cent in 2009. Global beef imports are forecast to fall for the second successive year, with a three per cent fall forecast in 2009.

Weaker demand forecast in Russia and Argentina

The US report attributes this decline to weaker beef demand from principle importers such as Russia, Mexico and South Korea, pointing out that the decline in demand from these countries will more than offset the growth in imports from the US and the EU.

The USDA report points to a strong decline in beef consumption in Russia and Argentina, stating that in a period of global recession, falling restaurant demand and smaller portions will effect demand for beef.

Consumers trading down in quality and volume

This reduction in worldwide demand for beef was echoed by Richard Brown of GIRA, speaking at AHDB’s recent Outlook Conference. GIRA had previously predicted that there would be a 20 per cent increase in consumption over the next 10 years.

However, Brown has revised these forecasts downwards, stating that the impact of the credit crunch and corresponding economic downturn would “dwarf” factors driving growth in the short-term.

He claimed the recession was causing a downturn in global demand with consumers trading down in both quality and volume as a likely outcome of the recession. This is certainly the case in Great Britain, where there is strong evidence of consumers moving away from more expensive cuts to stewing and mincemeat.

Consumers switching to lower-cost proteins

The USDA report also predicts that the recession will drive consumers to demand more lower-cost animal proteins, such as pork and poultry and non-animal proteins such as fish. There is some evidence of this already in Great Britain. In GB the volume of beef sold in the 12 weeks ending 22/03/09 is down seven per cent and lamb is down 17 per cent when compared to the same period last year.

The poultry industry is the key beneficiary with a four per cent increase in demand for chicken when comparing the 12 week period ending 22/03/09 with the same period in the previous year.