Weekly US Cattle Outlook - Exports Rise

US - Weekly Cattle Outlook, 19th September 2008 - Weekly review of the US cattle industry, written by Glenn Grimes and Ron Plain.

22 September 2008

4 minute read

North America

Ron Plain

Beef exports for July were up 13.5 percent from last year while beef imports were down 34.2 percent. Net beef imports as a percent of beef production in July was at 0.65 percent down from 2.4 percent in June and down from 6.4 percent a year earlier.

Beef exports for January-July were up 27.6 percent from 12 months earlier. Beef exports for the first seven months to Mexico were up 14.1 percent, up 54.6 percent to Japan, up 35.2 percent to Canada, down 86 percent to South Korea, up 37.3 percent to Taiwan, down 4.1 percent to Hong Kong, up 563 percent to Vietnam, down 8.6 percent to Bahamas and up 44 percent to other countries from the same months of 2007.

Beef imports for January-July were down 23.5 percent from last year. For these seven months net beef imports as a percent of production declined from 7.7 percent in 2007 to 3.1 percent in 2008. This was a decline of 4.6 percentage points and is the major reason why live fed cattle demand for January-July was up 1.5 percent while consumer demand for beef in the U.S. was down 3.7 percent from 12 months earlier.

USDA September 1 Crop report showed this year corn yield at 152.3 bushels per acre, down from 155 bushels per acre in August.

The USDA Corn price estimated per bushel is $5-6 up from 4.20 from the 07-08 marketing year. This adds $48-108 to the cost of feeding one animal. Therefore, the price of fed cattle needs to increase this much per head or by buying feeder cattle for this much less or some combination of the two.

Exports of beef for January-July amounted to $55.31 per head of cattle slaughtered in 2007. For 2008 this jumped to $72.61 per head slaughtered. Beef variety meats export in January-July of 2007 amounted to $16.07 per head slaughtered for 2008 the variety meat exports amounted to 22.76. The combined value of beef and beef variety meat exports in 2007 amounted to $71.38 per head slaughtered. For 2008 the value increased to $89.33 per head or an increase of 25 percent.

Retail Choice beef prices in August at $4.526 per pound were up 4.3 percent from July and up 8.8 from August of 2007. For January-August retail beef price at $4.2529 per pound were up 2.2 percent from a year earlier.

All segments of the beef industry benefited from these higher retail prices. The processor-retailer margin was up 4.8 percent for January-August. The packer margin was up 5.9 percent and the feeder price was up 0.8 percent from 2007.

The trade expects the number of cattle on feed September 1 to be down 2.1 percent from a year earlier. The number of cattle placed on feed during August is expected to be up 0.2 percent and fed marketings during August are expected to be down 9.7 from last year.

Feeder cattle and calves $1-3 per cwt lower instances $4-5 lower at Oklahoma City this week compared to seven days earlier.

The price range for medium and large frame Number One steers by weight groups this week at Oklahoma City were: 400-500 pounds $117.50-131, 500-600 pounds $111-123 per cwt, 600-700-pound calves $102-110 per cwt 600-700-pound yearlings $110.50-115.25 per cwt, 700-800 pounds $111-112.25 per cwt and 800-1,000 pounds $100-110.75 per cwt.

Wholesale prices for Choice beef Friday morning at $159.95 per cwt down $0.81 per cwt for the week. Select beef at $153.62 per cwt Friday morning was down $5.03 per cwt from seven days earlier.

The weighted average price for live fed cattle through Thursday for the five-market area at $98.30 up $2.10 per cwt. Weighted average carcass price at $150.90 per cwt was down $0.64 per cwt from a week earlier.

Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was estimated at 686 thousand head, up 6.0 percent from a year earlier.

The September 1 cattle on feed report came in a bit more positive than the averages of the trade estimates. The number on feed was down three percent from last year. The trade estimate was to be down 2.1 percent. Placements of cattle on feed during August were down 2.8 percent. The trade estimate of placements was up 0.2 percent from 2007. Markets during August were down 8.8 percent. The trade estimate was for the marketing to be down 9.7 percent from 12 months earlier.