Global Grain Feed Supplies Forecast Higher

AUSTRALIA - Global feed grain supplies are forecast to rise in 2007-08, with coarse grain production expected to be higher than previous estimates (United States Department of Agriculture – USDA). Worldwide production of coarse grains in 2007-08 (including corn, barley, oats and sorghum) is forecast to jump by 8%, to 1.056 billion tonnes.
calendar icon 25 March 2008
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Meat & Livestock Australia

In Brazil, coarse grain production is estimated to rise by 5% in 2007-08, to 55 million tonnes. While previous forecasts indicated that Brazilian production would be lower than 2006-07, higher than expected corn yields due to favourable growing conditions, including lower temperatures during summer, has contributed to the upwards revision. In the US, coarse grain production is expected to increase 25% year-on-year, to 351 million tonnes, driven by forecast increases in barley and sorghum production. Prices in the US for barley and sorghum remain bullish, with demand expected to also increase in the coming year, especially for animal feed.

While global usage of coarse grains for feed is forecast to increase in the coming year, usage for feed in Australia is expected to fall 26%, to 3.5 million tonnes. This is despite a projected 23% rise in Australian coarse grain production, to 13.1 million tonnes, due to improved sorghum yields. Coarse grain exports are expected to rise sharply.

World wheat production is expected to bounce back in 2007-08, increasing 2%, to a forecast 605 million tonnes. USDA also forecasts an increase in Australian wheat production in 2007-08 on the back of another drought affected harvest – increasing from 10.64 million tonnes to 13.10 million tonnes.

Increased world wheat production will allow some rebuilding of global wheat stocks, which could lead to a decline in wheat prices for the coming year. With low global stocks, grain prices are particularly sensitive to changes in grain production forecasts.

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