Is the Amazon More Valuable for Carbon Offsets Than Cattle or Soy?
AMAZON - After a steep drop in deforestation rates since 2004, widespread fires in the Brazilian Amazon (September and October 2007) suggest that forest clearing may increase this year.All told, since 2000 Brazil has lost more than 60,000 square miles (150,000 square kilometers) of rainforest -- an area larger than the state of Georgia or the country of Bangladesh. Most of this destruction has been driven by clearing for cattle pasture and agriculture, often in association with infrastructure development and improvements. Higher commodity prices, especially for beef and soy, have further spurred forest conversion in the region.
While drivers of Amazon deforestation are stronger than ever, mounting concerns over climate change and the effort to reign in greenhouse gas emissions may provide new economic incentives for landowners to preserve forest lands through a concept known as "avoided deforestation".
Aboveground live biomass (AGLB) class map of terra firme old growth forests derived from the decision rule classifier and multiple layers of remote sensing data. Courtesy of Saatchi et al 2007.
Avoided deforestation is the process by which owners, be they governments, communities, or landholders, sell the carbon rights to a given area to private investors. The private investor then sells the carbon credits on international markets to companies looking to offset their emissions. Under the existing Kyoto agreement, only reforestation and afforestation are eligible for carbon credits -- forest protection is specifically excluded from receiving carbon credits -- but considerable momentum for avoided deforestation makes it likely that the mechanism will be carefully considered during the next round of climate talks in Bali, Indonesia in December. Last month a group of eight tropical countries containing 80 percent of the world's remaining tropical forest cover -- Brazil, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Gabon, Cameroon, Costa Rica, Congo and Indonesia -- announced an alliance to push avoided deforestation at the upcoming conference.
Given the possibility that carbon finance through avoided deforestation could become a reality, does it make economic sense for Amazon landowners to start protecting forest for carbon offsets rather than clearing it for cattle pasture, soybean farms, or board-feet of timber? Preliminary analysis suggest that yes, "carbon conservation" could be an attractive alternative to other uses of Amazon forest. Further, because standing forest confers ancillary benefits -- including option value, biodiversity preservation, and other ecosystem services -- avoided deforestation would do more than help mitigate climate change.