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Wyckoff's Closing Report: Live Cattle Closed Lower

01 July 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

US - August live cattle closed down $0.75 at $150.36 Monday.

Prices closed nearer the session low on profit taking. A bullish USDA cattle-on-feed report last Friday and record high cash cattle trade could not support the futures market today. Any time a market cannot rally on fresh, bullish fundamental news, it’s a clue that all the bullish news has already been factored into futures market prices.

The cattle bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage in this major and mature bull market. A three-month-old uptrend remains in place on the daily bar chart.

Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at the recent contract high of $153.02.

The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $148.00. First resistance is seen at $151.00 and then at $152.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $149.75 and then at $149.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

August feeder cattle closed down $1.30 at $213.02 Monday. Prices hit another contract and record high today and then reversed course to close lower and near the session low.

Prices also scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart today. If there is good follow-through selling pressure on Tuesday then a bearish “key reversal” down would be confirmed on the daily bar chart, which would be on early clue that a market top is finally in place. But right now the bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at today’s contract high of $216.12.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at $210.00. First resistance is seen at $214.00 and then at $215.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $212.15 and then at $211.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

TheCattleSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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