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Jim Wyckoff: Cattle Closed Down on Monday

11 March 2014
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

US - April live cattle closed down $0.05 at $143.20 Monday. Prices closed nearer the session high in quieter trading.

The market is pausing following last week’s volatile price action. This pause is not bullish. The collapse in volatility makes me suspect a bigger move is right around the corner. Last week’s price action produced a bearish “key reversal” down on the daily bar chart.

That is an early technical clue that a market top is in place. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price “breakout” objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at last week’s contract high of $146.65. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $141.00. First resistance is seen at $143.60 and then at $144.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $142.80 and then at $142.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

May feeder cattle closed up $2.17 at $176.57 Monday. Prices soared to a new contract high to give the bulls fresh upside momentum to suggest more price gains are in the offing. The feeder bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $180.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at $174.00. First resistance is seen at $177.00 and then at $177.50. First support is seen at $176.00 and then at $175.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

April lean hogs closed up the $3.00 limit at $116.00 Monday. Prices hit another fresh contract and all-time record high today. This market is in a parabolic stage, which suggests, from a time perspective, that a market top is close at hand. There are still very bullish cash hog market fundamentals at work, including a pig disease in the U.S. and strong consumer demand. Hog futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a very steep two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Recent price action will likely produce a blow-off spike top in the hog futures market soon. The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $119.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $110.00. First resistance is seen at $117.00 and then at $118.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $115.00 and then at $114.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 10.0

TheCattleSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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