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Jim Wyckoff's Closing Report: December Cattle Closes Higher

19 September 2013
Jim Wyckoff Commentary -  TheCropSite

US - December live cattle closed up $0.75 at $129.70 Thursday. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh two-week high as the bulls regained some upside near-term technical momentum Thursday.

Ideas that cash cattle prices will fetch higher levels this week boosted the futures, as did ideas Friday afternoon's USDA cattle-on-feed report will be bullish by showing less cattle on feed in U.S. feedlots.

The recent weakness of the U.S. dollar is also a bullish underlying factor for cattle and hogs. The cattle bulls have the near-term technical advantage at present.

Bulls' next upside price "breakout" objective is to push and close prices above solid resistance at the August high of $130.80. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at this week's low of $127.97.

First resistance is seen at Thursday's high of $129.87 and then at $130.00. First support is seen at Thursday's low of $129.40 and then at $129.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

November feeder cattle closed up $1.02 at $160.02 Thursday. The feeder bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of $160.85.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $158.00.

First resistance is seen at $160.85 and then at $161.00. First support is seen at $159.50 and then at $159.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

December lean hogs closed down $0.40 at $87.55 Thursday. Prices closed near the session high and profit taking was featured. Cash hog prices were mixed Thursday amid varied demand.

Reports said some packers have cut back on slaughter due to limited supplies and poor margins. The hog still bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage.

The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $89.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $86.60.

First resistance is seen at $88.00 and then at Monday's contract high of $88.50. First support is seen at $87.00 and then at this week's low of $86.85. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

Grains

December corn futures closed up 1 cent at $4.57 1/4 Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session low and saw more tepid short covering in a bear market. Not much new fundamentally.

The approaching U.S. harvest is keeping U.S. cash basis levels weak. The corn bears remain in firm near-term technical control.

Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $4.73 1/2.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $4.45 3/4.

First resistance for December corn is seen at Thursday's high of $4.63 1/4 and then at this week's high of $4.68 1/2. First support is seen at Thursday's low of $4.55 1/2 and then at this week's low of $4.52 and then at $4.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

November soybeans closed down 8 1/2 cents at $13.39 a bushel Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session low, hit a fresh three-week low and scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart.

Soybeans have seen buying interest limited this week by some slightly beneficial rains that have fallen in the U.S. Corn Belt.

Soybean bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The recent higher volatility at higher price levels is a warning signal of a near-term market top.

However, it can also be argued that a big bull flag pattern has formed on the daily bar chart.

The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $13.80 a bushel.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $13.20.

First support is seen at Thursday's low of $13.31 1/4 and then at $13.25. First resistance is seen at $13.50 and then at Thursday's high of $13.61 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

December soybean meal closed down $2.50 at $423.30 Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session low and scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart.

The meal bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The higher volatility at higher price levels is a warning signal of a topping process in the meal market.

The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $450.00 last week's contract high of $451.20. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of $415.60.

First resistance comes in Wednesday's high of $428.50 and then at Thursday's high of $431.30. First support is seen at Thursday's low of $419.50 and then at $415.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

December bean oil closed up 9 points at 42.80 cents Thursday. Prices closed near mid-range and saw tepid short covering in a bear market.. The bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.

The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 44.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of 41.85 cents.

First resistance is seen at Thursday's high of 43.09 cents and then at 43.25 cents.

First support is seen at Thursday's low of 42.44 cents and then at this week's low of 42.03 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 7 3/4 cents at $6.54 1/4 Thursday. Prices closed near mid-range but did hit a fresh three-week high today.

Some fresh export demand for U.S. wheat lifted the futures market. However, the wheat market bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.

A weekly high close on Friday in wheat would be an early clue that a near-term market bottom is in place. Wheat will continue to be a follower of corn.

Wheat bulls' next upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $6.64 a bushel.

The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $6.35 1/2.

First resistance is seen at Thursday's high of $6.62 1/2 and then at $6.64. First support lies at $6.50 and then at Thursday's low of $6.46 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

December HRW wheat closed up 7 1/2 cents at $6.99 3/4 Thursday. Prices closed near mid-range and hit a fresh two-week high on more short covering.

The HRW wheat market bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $7.11 1/4.

The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $6.75.

First resistance is seen at Thursday's high of $7.07 1/2 and then at $7.11 1/4 First support is seen at Thursday's low of $6.92 1/4 and then at the contract low of $6.87 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

December oats closed up 7 1/2 cents at $3.11 1/4 Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw short covering in a bear market.

Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $3.00.

Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $3.25 3/4. First support lies at $3.10 and then at Thursday's low of $3.05 1/2.

First resistance is seen at Thursday's high of $3.12 3/4 and then at this week's high of $3.16. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

TheCattleSite News Desk

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.



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