No Feeder Pick Up For 2-3 Years23 August 2013
US – Any increase in feeder cattle supplies is unlikely to be seen for up to three years, according to Kenny Burdine, Livestock Marketing Specialist, University of Kentucky.
He has predicted supplies to tighten short term due to the lag in expansion as heifers breed and wean calves.
He added that available beef cow data suggests numbers are consistent with expectations – about 2 per cent down from January 2013.
“So ultimately, we are right where we have been the last several years. We have likely not seen the bottom yet in terms of cattle numbers and there is still no sign of expansion on the horizon,” added Mr Burdine.
“It's likely a safe bet that we would not see any increase feeder cattle supplies for 2-3 years.”
“Despite the significant increase in August CME© futures over the past six weeks, there is still some carry in the market as we look towards fall. On August 8th, September was trading more than $3 higher than August and October was trading more than $2 higher than September,” said Mr Burdine.
“In my opinion this is largely a grain market effect as we get closer to the expected cheaper corn at harvest. From October 2013 to May 2014, the market is largely flat. It is very likely that our market for heavy feeder cattle will peak a bit later this year; I would suspect October or November. I would also expect calf markets to hold much better this fall than usual.”
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